Quantcast
View Post
Wyrdness said:
DonFerrari said:

Nintendo needs to go third party are a thing in VGC since Wii days.

The reasoning for PS3 being the biggest comeback is because it was done on the same generation instead of killing off the HW. Also as people here like to point it is successor to 3DS as well (and it finished first on its gen with 75M sold).

It can be argued the SNES coming back against the Mega Drive/Genesis to finish as market leader is the biggest come back that was in the same gen as well the MD/Genesis even had a two year head start and equivalent developer support.

Well it could. But I don't remember SNES ever being heavily criticized or taking a long time to get traction, they just launched later.

haxxiy said:
DonFerrari said:

20M I think is achievable this year, 25M was the too much optimism for me.

SW really is where it is shining a lot.

It still early to estimate what will be the end total, but 80-100M seems a safety bracket.

As long as it's not replaced too early, I believe 3DS numbers are a good bet, and 3DS + Wii-U an optimal result.

I agree.

Mandalore76 said:
DonFerrari said:

Nintendo needs to go third party are a thing in VGC since Wii days.

The reasoning for PS3 being the biggest comeback is because it was done on the same generation instead of killing off the HW. Also as people here like to point it is successor to 3DS as well (and it finished first on its gen with 75M sold).

We have radically different views on what constitutes/defines "greatest comeback" then.  I'll leave it at that.

No problem. Important thing is that Sony hold on on PS3 bringing us PS4 and Nintendo is making great success on Switch.

Soundwave said:
Wyrdness said:

Your notion is a bit narrow when it comes to selling power, Mario Party for instance has sold 6m, Luigi's Mansion is a 4m seller the are still the likes of a potential Tomodachi which is a 6m selling franchise as well the will be another Pokemon title in future the will be another Zelda game fanbase being there doesn't stop it growing BOTW has grown beyond what prior games have obtained, you also don't factor in the prospect of third party deals like the Marvel Alliance one and Bayo 3, Dragon Quest XII will also definitely be on Switch with how dominant the system is over in Japan, what you list as A tier aren't the only sellers. A Pro model is not required for the long term because as 3DS, PS4 and X1 showed the enhanced model's feature is hardly used (In the X1's case barely changed it's position) plus Switch has the entire portable market to itself.

Tell that to the PS4 ... it's an old man's console by this stage and its still outselling the Switch in like it's 6th year and its hardware shipments are virtually identical to its second year (17.7 million vs. 17.5 million projected). 

That's remarkable legs. I think the Pro model certainly has a lot to do with that, its kept the hardware line fresh. 

Nintendo I don't think can match that, 3DS has shown large sales declines in year 4/5/6 from its peak, so did Wii. Nintendo's problem is they run out of A-tier IP after year 3, then they don't really have the same tier of system sellers for year 4/5/6 and the hardware becomes increasingly dated and less desirable as they try to milk the userbase for another few years until hardware sales really dwindle. 

A BOTW2 is not going to bring in like millions of new consumers, most BOTW/Zelda fans will own a Switch for BOTW. 

From what we know 1 in every 4 or 5 PS4 sold is a Pro, so not sure how much it would be selling without it and how much the refresh is responsible for good sales so late in life, but I agree that even though a lot complained about it the revision helped sales.

Wyrdness said:
Soundwave said:

Tell that to the PS4 ... it's an old man's console by this stage and its still outselling the Switch in like it's 6th year and its hardware shipments are virtually identical to its second year (17.7 million vs. 17.5 million projected). 

That's remarkable legs. 

Nintendo I don't think can match that, 3DS has shown large sales declines in year 4/5/6 from its peak, so did Wii. Nintendo's problem is they run out of A-tier IP after year 3, then they don't really have the same tier of system sellers for year 4/5/6 and the hardware becomes increasingly dated and less desirable as they try to milk the userbase for another few years until hardware sales really dwindle. 

It outsold Switch which hasn't had a price cut and had most of it's major releases delayed, over the last 6 months however NS has been outselling it to the point it made up for a luke warm Q1 and Q2 this doesn't really back your point, 3DS is still at 75m sales and still active despite being alongside it's successor for 2 years now that's not really a point that backs you either as the platform is in its 8th year now plus Pokemon Sun and Moon, Fire Emblem Fates came out in year 6 and boosted sales even in it's 4th year Tomodachi came out alongside Smash, ORAS and a number of third party titles like Bravely Default and Yokai that help sales all of this goes against what you're saying.

Switch still has plenty potential titles in future, Paper Mario, M&L, Tomodachi, Monolith's two projects, Pokemon Gen Remake, Pikmin etc... these would do a lot more for sales than a pro model.

Zelda averages 4-5m BOTW on NS has sold 12m despite also being on WiiU which if we add the last know total of that version brings the total to 14.7m if we go from the higher end of the series average that's 9.7m new customers and people before it's release were using your argument on how Zelda fans would already have a Wii U. Another case point is Sun and Moon still sold a tonne of hardware despite X and Y already being there.

PS4 and Switch were selling at similar price point and games on PS4 for most of the year were above Nintendo while Switch was fresher, the close race for the year shows that.

PAOerfulone said:
Total Nintendo Switch Online memberships are at 9.8 million, excluding free trials.
These subscripts also include family memberships.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190426_3e.pdf

So, a little over 1 in every 4 Nintendo Switch owners have a paid online membership.

Seems like both userbases (Sony and Ninty) that heavily criticized paid online on competitors have embraced on their platform.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
PAOerfulone said:
Total Nintendo Switch Online memberships are at 9.8 million, excluding free trials.
These subscripts also include family memberships.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190426_3e.pdf

So, a little over 1 in every 4 Nintendo Switch owners have a paid online membership.

How does that ratio compare to the subscription services of Playstation and Xbox?

When PS4 was at similar HW sale number it was about 50%. Nowadays it is about 40% attach ratio. Xbox I believe must be higher because of the focus on Multiplayer and now with GamePass with Gold.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994