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colafitte on 23 April 2019
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Mbolibombo said:
colafitte said:

Mmm, you asked me "What deems this to be expected though?", and i answered the only fact that can be expected, that Nintendo themselves said they expect to ship 17'0M for FY, so 2'5M for Q4. It's the only answer i can give you, so i don't really understand your point here. I even explained already multiple times why we should accept that number, i really can't say anything more without repeating myself. And no, they said 20M at the beggining of the FY. It's not the same as expecting something for the next quarter. Probably the sum of units to be shipped by Q4 was already established by the moment they said what to expect for FY.

Like i said, despite VGC showing that huge growth that you mention in JP and in USA, the total units sold to consumers are what they are, around 33'0M by the end of March. So do you really expect that Switch has around 36M shipped by that time??, is VGC tracking incorrectly according to you then? because that's what you're saying.

I already said there is a possibility VGC is tracking too low Switch (implying that maybe there will be more units shipped, like maybe 500k more), but that's not my main prediction. It's a reasonable possibility to me, but nothing else. If i have to bet money i will bet what i said. Of course your opinion is perfectly fine, but you have to consider that your main reason as to why Switch will ship more (because that growth in JP and US) has already been acknowledged by VGC in their tracking. That's all.

Nintendo said during a briefing halfway through the fiscal year they were not going to change their 20M forecast, so yes they have mentioned 20M after the beginning of the fiscal year. 

I'm not saying VGC is tracking incorrectly, I'm saying dont blindly put all your eggs in the basket. VGC mentioned themselves that they have lost several trackers since the new year and they have done reactionary changes upwards to the weekly charts a numerous times over the past quarter. Including when their latest briefing released, and every single NPD leak/release. So no I dont put much faith in VGC tracking EU+RotW 100% accurate either, but who knows maybe they do have significantly better tracking in these regions. I much rather look at official shipping history combined with sell history and ratios to get my picture.

But it's all semantics, we argue about 0.5-1M units and we wont really come anywhere with this. If you're right on thursday(?) I will give you a cookie for having  a correct prediction! ;P

Hahaha fair enough, i will do the same if you're right.

I agree though in the fact tracking EU+RotW is difficult (i expressed my doubts about this multiple times in the past in fact), so that's why i can accept the possibility of Switch being undertracked. But i am completely honest telling you that if VGC is tracking correctly i'm 100% sure there won't be around 3M units left on stock by the end of March. To be 35'8M shipped Switch has to be around 34'0M sold to consumers, at least, and that means Switch is undertracked 1M here and i think that's too much. Maybe it can be something inbetween, like 35'3M shipped (17'5M for the year) and 33'3M sold to consumers. If you expect something like this, then i can agree with you, although i still expect what i said.

So settled then, it's this thursday then?, so we don't have to wait that much. I'll be here when the annoucement comes then.