Global Hardware 16 March 2019

[zorg1000]

DonFerrari said:

zorg1000 said:

Division was an example.

PS4 release schedule

January 18-Ace Combat 7

January 25-Resident Evil 2

January 29-Kingdom Hearts

February 4-Apex Legends

February 15-Jump Force

February 15-Far Cry: New Dawn

February 15-Metro Exodus

February 22-Anthem

March 8-Devil May Cry 5

March 15-The Division 2

Switch release schedule

January 11-New Super Mario Bros. Deluxe

If Switch has sold on par/better than PS4 in a time where it's going through a bit of a dry spell versus PS4 getting notable releases nearly every week than the gap will be pretty notable later this year.

These are certainly much better examples, still that is basically the norm for PS4 if look at it.

Also the bigger games will still release at the end of the year. Anyway as I said I find it hard to happen Switch 20+M and PS4 15-M for this year (next year that is pretty much a given).

The YoY decline will continue at a similar rate in Q2. Days Gone has the potential to be a solid system seller but I doubt it comes close to what God of War did last April. May has Rage 2 & Crash Racing in June vs Detroit & The Crew 2 so expect those those months to be down as well.

What big games are confirmed for the 2nd half of the year? The annual sports and Call of Duty are coming but their console moving ability gets smaller each year as these will be the 7th entry of those titles.

Some safe bets are Doom 2 from Bethesda vs Fallout 76 last year, Borderlands 3 from Take-Two vs Red Dead 2 last year, Watch Dogs from Ubisoft vs Assassin's Creed last year, Star Wars from EA vs Battlefield V last year, Last of Us 2 from Sony vs Spiderman last year.

Let's say it's a tie overall when it comes to big games in the 2nd half of the year, that likely means a notable decline as it's harder for titles to sell consoles when you get late into a consoles cycle.

15 million for PS4 requires a ~17% YoY decline and 20m for Switch requires a ~22% increase which shouldn't be too hard to imagine since PS4 is currently down by over 20% and Switch up by about 28%.