Shiken said:
Well they are definitely not launching this year, so 2019 is a lock for Switch WW I believe.
Seeing how they will most likely come holiday 2020, most of next year is safe for Switch too as the sales for PS4 and X1 will slow even more. Once they launch however, it will be the baseline that is important.
I predict the PS5 to sell similarly to Switch/PS4 when the launch rush clears if Sony does not drop the ball. Switch will continue its current momentum due to the portability factor for another 2 years through 1st and 3rd party executives based on the architecture of the Switch, which is when the Switch 2 drops and closes the power gap to at least where it is now again. A timely price cut will play into this, as the Switch will be much cheaper than the other two newer consoles, and 3rd parties will not be able to ignore the huge install base. While multiplats will be more scarce, we will likely see more Octopath Traveler or Bayonetta type deals going down when it comes to 3rd parties at this time.
The OG Switch will become the new lite console for a few more years as bigger projects shift to Switch 2 moving forward. This will allow for Nintendo's typical 5 year cycle and a 7 yr or more lifespan for the base Switch. Rinse and repeat.
The NextBox will do better than the X1, but not as well as the Switch 2 or PS5 in the grand scheme and the base Switch will settle in around 100 mil WW sales.
That is my prediction. |
2020 safe for the Switch ? I see coming the start of the decline, I don't see how the sales momemtum can maintain without new 10M+ seller. There should be sure this year :
- Animal Crossing
- The 2 Pokemon (they should actually do 10+ each)
- Mario Maker 2 (my estimation is actually 9-10)
For 2020 what can we have actually ? Except an eventual new Mario Kart, I see absolutly nothing else.
Even a new Zelda based on the engine of BotW, would I think not reach 8M, following the rule of Majora.
