PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 52 Numbers Added; Final 2019 Totals

[Robert_Downey_Jr.]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Thank you for starting another one of these threads.  Much appreciated.

PAOerfulone said:
According to my first calculations for this thread: By the 4th week of last year, the PS4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch sold through roughly 7.15%, 4.97%, and 5.75% of their yearly sales respectively.

Applying those same percentages to this year, given the first 4 weeks of data we have now, this is what all three systems would sell in 2019:

PlayStation 4 - 14,644,360
Xbox One - 4,827,667
Nintendo Switch - 20,292,569

Those numbers are a pretty good baseline.  Then make adjustments based on other factors.  For example

1) Switch's 2018 line-up is going to be their weakest one until Switch's successor comes out.  Meanwhile their 2019 line-up is already looking stronger, and we still haven't heard what kind of third party games are coming.  Most likely the third party output will be a lot better this year too.  Also there are rumors of a new Switch model being released this year.  So 20m is actually a very conservative estimate.  25m+ will be more accurate.

2) PS4 arguably had their best game line-up in 2018.  On the other hand, they are far overdue for a price cut.  Assuming one comes this year, it will probably balance out the weaker (but still respectable) game line-up.  So 15m is probably about right for them.

3) XB1?  Is it even getting exclusives this year?  Then again it didn't get many last year either.  So 5m is really the maximum in sales for XB1, but it might only get 3-4m.

The PS4 pricecut effect depends entirely whether $250 or $200

 

$250 and I see it doing 15m

 

$200 and I see 16m+