Brexit

[only777]

Bofferbrauer2 said:

only777 said:

"Why is the danger of an EU collapse an argument for leaving the EU?"

Really?  You would want to stay in the house of cards as it falls down?  Besides I actually wrote my answer for this in my post.  That was: 

 The UK be wise to leave the EU, take the painful couple of year hit while getting it affairs in order, because by that time the EU very well could collapse and the UK will be left as the most powerful and stable county in Europe.

"Let's pretend Germany would leave the EU because of the danger of a EU collapse."

You miss key facts.  Germany are the biggest player in the EU, infact the EU is a project by Germany.  They don't want to leave it.   But the biggest issue is that Germany and most other EU countrys (Not the UK though) use the Euro as their money.  To pull out of the Eu is a huge task to reissue and change their financial systems again.  The UK doesn't have this problem as they still use the Pound (£).

" The EU is the largest economic area in the world"

No its not. Both Asia and North America have higher GDP: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_continents_by_GDP_(nominal)

The EU is not a continent, but an economic bloc. And like you could see, it took entire continents to rival with the EU in that regard, as neither the US or China are big enough to beat the EU in that regard.

The problem with your theory is that the house in question is held up by the different nations in the EU. Leaving would be the reason why it collapses. But if you don't do so, it stays in place. What you're advocating is herd mentality: One's leaving, so everybody must leave. It's the reason why the stock markets crash (because everybody panics and starts selling too).

While there's a risk that Le Pen would push France out of the EU, she would need to win the election first. She has a good shot for the first round, but I doubt very much that she will win the second round. And depending on how severe Brexit will end up to be, this might also scare voters away from such an Eurosceptical party like the Front National.

Speaking of the FN, funny and ironic bit: Marine le Pen moved the party away from Pétainism and more into Gaullism. De Gaulle was a staunch advocate of not letting the UK join the EU. Now the UK are leaving and another Gaullism leader is trying to become Président(e?) de la République. The EU was Robert Schumann's (then Minister of French foreign affairs) project and not a German one as you claim. At worst, it could e called a Luxembourgish project as Schumann was born in Luxembourg. It is, funny enough, also a byproduct of the Marshall plan, which ordered the European countries to work out their industrial supplies together, which led to the predecessor of the EU, the ECSC.

Okay, so let's tackle those points.

"it took entire continents to rival with the EU in that regard, as neither the US or China are big enough to beat the EU in that regard."

The EU has been in constant decline ( Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU ).  Sure the EU is a big economic force, it added a wealth of many rich countrys together so it was always going to start strong.  But all it's ever done is make everyone under it weaker.  This is not good economics.

" Leaving would be the reason why it collapses. But if you don't do so, it stays in place."

Lets pretend Brexit never happened, and there was never a vote to leave.  That doesn't stop Greece from bankruptcy.  That wouldn't stop the immigration crisis from hitting Germany.  that wouldn't stop Italy for giving the EU the middle finger.  that doesn't stop Spain from hitting rock bottom.  It doesn't stop the yellow vests in France.  Even if Brexit never happened, all those other things still would have, and added together are a bigger threat to the EU than Brexit.

" she would need to win the election first. She has a good shot for the first round, but I doubt very much that she will win the second round."

She might win.  She might lose.  But in the age of Trump I'd say anything is possible.