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I think the baseline could be like 20% (~10k) higher this year, which is significant, but there should be a lot more releases that give boosts as well. Also if a new version of the Switch comes out (either a cheaper one or a pro version with the original dropping in price) we could see a several hundred thousand unit bump from that as well. I think Switch will easily clear 4 million this year and I think a good target is 4.5 million with a higher baseline, more game release bumps than last year, revision, lower entry price, Animal Crossing, and Pokemon.