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Mnementh said:
Until I cleaned up my signature recently I still had the bets linked (I link long term stuff in my sig, so that I don't forget about it) with two guys, that seriously were betting PS3 would easily outsell Wii. And this weren't early lifecycle bets, at the time of the bets Wii was already above 100M and PS4 was near launch. So people just believe into ridiculous stuff. Because it fits their worldview or whatever.

PS3 outselling Wii wasn't too crazy.  I mean, its sales were starting to rise, while the Wii's were starting to fall, and it finished just ~15M behind it.  My guess is they were expecting the PS3 to have better legs after the PS4 launched, maybe match the PS1's ~20M after the PS2 launched.  Two things stopped that, though.  One, the PS3 was already 7 years old when the PS4 launched, and two, Sony wasn't able to get the price any lower than $199.

FentonCrackshell said:
thismeintiel said:

Well, 115M-120M is definitely more reasonable.  What is your prediction for PS4 sales this year?

 

13 million

I don't know.  I don't really see it dropping as much as ~27% this year.  Not with some big games still launching and, more than likely, a cut to $249.  I'm going to go with a drop of 15%, or 15M.  But, we shall see.

GribbleGrunger said:
As I've always said, above PS1, below PS2.

That's quite the range.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 03 February 2019