Should look at the threads which people predicted the sales.
But considering people expecting MHW selling like 1-3M WW and it smashing it I would say it is bigger surprise. GoW and Spider-Man also sold much much more than some people had expected (and they seem off in the tracking of Machina).
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994
Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."