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Alcyon said:
zorg1000 said:

Here is another way to look at things.

2017

UK-680k

France-910k

Spain-300k

Portugal-20k

Combined-1910k

In Nintendo's Q3 FY presentation last year, they had a graph showing Switch had sold ~3.5 million in Europe as of January 20, 2018 so 3.3-3.4 million at the end of 2017 sounds about right.

That means those 4 countries made up roughly ~57 % of Europe sales. Now let's look at this years numbers.

2018

UK-820k

France-1130k

Spain-390k

Portugal-50k

Combined-2390k

Assuming those 4 countries still make up ~57% of Europe sales than it would have sold ~4.2 million in 2018 for a grand total of 7.5-7.6 million LTD for Europe so that would be about ~500k overtracked.

 

Then take the PS4 at his launch and you'd find that the PS4 was overtracked during the second year. We are back to square one. The numbers

 

In 2013 the PS4 sold 1682K in Europe.

UK (565K)+FR (260K)+ GE (278K) = 1103K (579K for the rest) or ~66% of european's sales.

 

So these 3 combined makes for ~66% of Europe's sales.

 

In 2014 the PS4 sold 6053K in Europe.

UK (1261K)+ FR (845K) + GE (1065K) = 3171K (2882K for the rest) or ~52% of european's sales.

If those 3 combined made for ~66% of Europe's sales, the "rest" would have been around 1586K. So was the PS4 overtracked for almost 1.3M units. ?

Or, perhaps, I say perhaps, new systems don't sell well outside the big western european markets. Then perhaps, I say perhaps, these markets start to grow when the console is a sucess. And for the biggest sucesses, they made up for more than half of the european sales.

But let's have a complete chart.

 

2013 : UK (565K)+FR (260K)+ GE (278K) = 1103K (579K for the rest) or ~66% of european's sales.

2014 : UK (1261K)+ GE (1065K) + FR (845K) = 3171K (2882K for the rest) or ~52% of european's sales.

2015 : UK (1148K) + GE (1371K) + FR (1026K) = 3545K out of 6859K (3314K for the rest) or ~52% of the sales.

2016 : UK (942K) + GE(1203K) + FR (973K) = 3118K out of 6795K (3677K for the rest) or ~46% of the sales.

 

If those 3 combined made of ~52% of the sale, the rest would have been around 3272K. 400K overtracked ?

 

2017 : UK (1213K) + DE (1312K) +FR (1020K) = 3545K out of 8094K (4549K for the rest) or ~44% of the sales.

2018 : UK (1100K) + GE (1163K) + FR (959K) = 3222K out of 7469K (4247K for the rest) or ~43% of the sales.

 

Now the Switch

2017 : UK (737K) + GE (567K) + FR (911K) = 2215K out of 3404K (1189K for the rest) or ~65% of the sales. Similar to the PS4 in 2013.

2018 : UK (821K) + GE(691K) + FR (1131K) = 2643K out of 4742K (2099K for the rest) or ~56% of the sales. Similar to the PS4 in 2014.

 

Why would you expect the same shares every year ?

 

@KingofTrolls : I know, but is Russia tracked in "Europe" for VGC ?

Nobody is saying that it is overtracked, just that it could be.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.