| fatslob-:O said: With the latest NPD figures, vgc estimates the Switch has sold at total of ~14M units. With no big releases on the horizon it's safe to rule out that the Switch will ship another ~6M units this quarter ... |
That's incorrect. You're suggesting it needs another 6m sell through, but it doesn't. Nintendo's forecast had it doing 20m shipped for the fiscal year (April 2018 to March 2019). Honest question: do you know the difference between shipped and sold? VGC numbers are sold, not shipped.
PS: If the 10m shipped number for this quarter is correct, Switch will be at 15.1m shipped as of December 31st, needing another 5m to reach the goal. I agree with you that even with that it's impossible if those are the numbers we'll be getting next week from Nintendo, but as food for thought, Switch did ~3m last year on the same quarter. This year, with the info we have, it's tracking well ahead of last year's January (about 40% higher based on MC), so we can realistically expect it to ship anything from 3.5m to 4.2m, which should put it between 18.6m~19.3m for the fiscal year. While not reaching 20m, it will be quite close (will miss the mark by less than 10%) for sure).
Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won
