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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

I want to add too that 3DS went from 5'5M in 2012 to 5'0M in 2013 and you know what games came for 3DS that year in Japan?:

Pokemon X/Y
Monster Hunter 4
Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon
Mario and Luigi Dream Team
Donkey Kong Country Returns 3DS
Yokai Watch
Zelda A Link Between Worlds
Shin Megami Tensei IV
Phoenix Wright
Dragon Ball Heroes

Edit: oh and Animal Crossing New Leaf..., that little and unsuccesful game....XD


Better and more games didn't tanslate into more sales for 3DS that year.

Animal Crossing was 2012 in Japan.

The difference is that 3DS had a price cut in year 1 and a revision in year 2, Switch is entering year 3 with neither of those things meaning the trajectory will likely be different from 3DS.

Media Create sales 3DS

2011-4.28m

2012-5.50m

2013-4.88m

2014-3.18m

3DS sales started out really slow, the price was too high and the software output too low, but the price cut in summer followed by big games in the fall led to a record first year.

Momentum from late 2011 continued in 2012 and this is when the system started to get a really steady output of big games and a revision. This was the 3rd best year for any system ever in Japan.

2013 was another amazing year but it's extremely hard to top what 2012 had and it suffered a modest decline. And by the beginning of 2014, 3DS already had an install base approaching 15 million so market saturation started to kick in causing a large drop in year 4 despite still selling strong.

 

I think the sales curve for Switch will be different

2017-3.31m

2018-3.53m

2019-~4.2m

2020-~3.7m

Instead of large increase followed by small decrease followed by large decrease, I think Switch will be small increase, big increase, small decrease in year 2, 3 & 4.

Oh, true about Animal Crossing New Leaf. VGC database showed 2013. My mistake.

Yeah, i agree with you. I expect Switch selling more, no less this year. But i just read a post before saying Pokemon, AC, Luigi's Mansion, Yokai Watch, etc... were launching this year on Switch and it remind me the lineup was very similar to 3DS in 2013.

So, basically i was trying to say, that a good lineup, is not a gurantee of better sales. Price and momentum are even more important.