| Intrinsic said: Thats the thing..... sony doesnt need anything for the 2019 holiday season. My reasoning here is I am looking at it from a Fiscal Year perspective. If the PS4 launches in the 4Q 2019 FY that means it launches between january and march 2020. If TLOU2 is released anytime from april 2019 to march ending 2020 then it will still cunt for the Apr 2019- Mar 2020 FY. But holding off the release to be a launch title for the PS5 while also being available for the PS4 ensures it still gets the sales n the PS4 and that there is a big game to launch the PS5 with. The PS4 would already be at 100M by september this year. They have RE2, KH3, Dreams and Days gone this year alon with all the usual Multiplatform games. They can ride out this year and build up for an early 2020 launch. They dont have to "maximize" PS4 sales. At this point they dont have much more to gain. Especially considering the people buying a console for $400-$500 are not the people buying it for $200-$250 which are the people buying a PS4 between fall this year and fall next year. Everything they need to make a PS5 that will release in fall 2020 will be available by fall 2019 and the only issue may be games. Thats the only reason they will not release early 2020, if there are no games to launch with the system. Just remember, in its first year and at $400 - $500 the PS5 is for those that bought a PS4 in 2013-2014 or a PS4pro in 2016. Not for those who will only buy it when it costs $300 two or three years later. Yup..... sony is at 91.6M now. Even if the sell only 15M for 2019 that will put them at 107M'ish. Which probably means they would have shipped around 110M. If they can accomplish that while keeping the price the same then sony will be more than happy to do that. And I believe they can. |
TLOU II is not going to be a launch title for PS5 (i mean, is not going to lauch a the same time as PS5). It will be a full sold game in PS4 first, selling its own 10-15M and then it will accompany PS5 with whatever the method PS5 uses with previous PS4 games, retrocompability or a remastered version. This way is more profitable for Sony, because PS5 will sell at lauch whatever they produce anyway.
And they're going to need a blockbuster title to sell in Holiday 2019 because now Sony is a premium software publisher like the rest of the best. Gran Turismo did good in 2017, Spiderman did way better in 2018 and Sony will use TLOU II to guarantee software and hardware success to Q3 results.
For last but not least. Remind you that this is the same Sony that decided not to use any kind of promotion in December in USA to maximize profits. They're squeezing PS4 to the max and if they can sell PS4 at good profits for a longer time, they are going to do it.
In business the words "they don't have to maximize sales" does not exist. They are going to do the best they can do with PS4. And after knowing recent commentaries from them saying PS4 is entering the final period of its life or that they won't be at E3 in 2019, so nothing new hardware to announce. They won't announce PS5 by year's end either because that will affect PS4 sales. Nintendo did it with Switch because WiiU was a total failure, but PS4 will still sell a lot next holidays. They will announce PS5 by Feb or March 2020 and it will launch at the end of year worlwide like PS4.
So a year later, TLOU II with 12 months in the market will reignite its sales with a PS5 version, and will still keep selling.
