November NPD 2018 Thread

[Trumpstyle]

CGI-Quality said:

I'll take off the mod coat for just a sec.

Let's look at it this way ~ Switch has breathed new life into this game. Decemeber's numbers are going to be MASSIVE for it. Period. Dot.

Realistically, 80 million is the bare minimum of final lifetime totals. Treat it like a handheld regarding sales (its docking feature is the icing). I predict that it will sell between 95 and 115 million, give or take. A bit behind the PS4, but definitely ahead of the 3DS. I want all of its doubters of 80+ million final unit totals to consider that this isn't the Wii. It shouldn't have that kind of hard drop off because the carrying weight of the Wii's particular audience are not the people jumping through hoops for Smash. These are core, dedicated fans of the series and many of them WILL buy a Switch for just this one game. The PS5/Xbox Next will have an impact, no doubt, but there's nothing currently suggesting that this thing will just taper off and crawl to 80 million and the Switch has much more pulling power than the Wii, in my eyes.

2019 will be a better indicator of long term success. Just think about all of the variables to reach your final conclusions.

Yep, nope. You predicting it will sell close to PS4, no chance. If it can't even beat PS4 this year, Switch has no chance coming close to life-time sales of PS4. Switch will probably peak this year, like 3ds peaked first year and wii second year, Nintendo consoles peaks very early because of no 3rd-party titles.

I expect Switch sales start to dwindle next year and if they don't release a Switch Mini soon without a station dock the sales will start to fizzle very quickly. Life-time sales will be between 60-70m and the biggest reason for this will be price. I don't believe Nintendo can hit that 99-149$ price point nintendo 3ds manage to do.