November NPD 2018 Thread

[colafitte]

Miyamotoo said:

colafitte said:

As time pases is becoming more and more obvious that Switch won't be at 35M+ by end of March. It's going to end 2018 around 29-30M, and it' won't sell more than 5M in the first three months of 2019....no way. in my opinion is going to be around 33M sold, and 35M shipped by end of March, like I said to you before. Switch is doing fine this holiday season and is still not enough to reach that bonkers goal of 20M FY shipments.

My prevision worked this way:

end of 2017 13M, end of 2018 29M, end of 2019 46M, end of 2020 59M, end of 2021 69M, end of 2022 77M. After it probably will have another year selling around the same and by 2024 Nintendo will probably be launching the successor. So by then, and after 7 years on the market the Switch will be around 85M. And believe me, this is my most optimistic prediction, and i'm chosing to believe this than my most pessimistic one.

When we talking about LT numbers and officaly numbers we always talking about shipped numbers, those are only officall numbers we have, so its pointless to even mentione sold numbers. How time is passing its more and more obvious it will be 35m+ at end of March, 1.35m for November in US (75% incrase compared to same month of last year) and 280k week in Japan are latest example. This year Q3 November-December will be at around 10m, last year same period was 7.5m, Switch is currently at 23m with those 10m from Q3 Switch will be at around 33m+ at end of this year, 3m+ for Q4 is safe bet, so 35m+ for end of March is very safe bet. Switch maybe want hit projected those 20m (even it has good chanches and that goal now seems much more possible), but even if they dont hit it will do at least 18-19m.

It much easier to give estimates for full FY because for them we have/will have official numbers, at end of FY 2018 Switch will be around 36-38m, at end of FY 2019. 58-60m, I dont see point giving estimates for 2020. or later because we still dont know what could expect in 2020. and what sales could be. But this show we have very different expecations, I expecting around 60m at end of FY 2019. while you expecting similar number at end of 2020, we will see who will be right, next month when Nintendo brings Nov-Dec results will be great insight, and you already eat crow one time. :D

So your 35M+ were shipment sales then?, OK, my fault. I believe 34-35M shipped will be exactly the number. If Switch ends 2018 selling 29M i expect around 3M units more shipped, so 32M shipped by Q3. That means 9M+3M is what i expect. That will put Switch FY18 in 17M, which is 1M more than what i expect Switch selling in 2018 to consumers