Mummelmann said:
So, how will it sell 35 million+ by March 3rd 2019? It will either need a record-breaking holiday season or a record-breaking Q1 2019, both seem equally unlikely. I think the very best scenario is somewhere around 30 million by year's end, which leaves about 5 million for more or less two months (February is short, making it almost exactly two months in number of days until March 3rd from January 1st). So, 2.5 million sales average in January and February or 8-9 million sales for the remaining six weeks of 2018? The lowest weekly average for a 30 million by year's end result is just below 1.2 million, the PS4 had two weeks last holidays that were either 1.2 or above (Switch had one, week ending Dec. 23rd had almost exactly 1.2 million), most were in the 800-900k range. For 9 million, which is likely a necessary minimum for reaching a high enough number to make the Q1 sales feasibly match the 35 million+ figure, it would need to almost match the PS4's best week of last year's holidays, every single week for the rest of the year, and that's not happening. Even 1.2 million is unrealistic, it sold about 5.2 million for the last six weeks of least year and would need a yoy bump of about 35-40% across those weeks. And, as mentioned, even with those amazing numbers, that would leave a hefty 5 million for only two months of Q1 next year. Basically, even for a 30 million year end LT figure, the Switch needs to match its 2017 holidays best week, every week from here on out. Bottom line, what you're saying seems impossible from every angle. For reference, the Switch sold about 2.1 million between December 30th 2017 and March 3rd 2018. Increasing that to 5 million or beyond is a seriously tall order. Increasing it to 3 million would be a terrific achievement. |
35 is going to be a bit tough but I think it can come close. Like 33.5 to 34 million. I would fully expect a much bigger December this year through March. Releasing a big title like Smash in December i think is going to make Switch sales go crazy in December and that will push through until early next year. Mario Oddysey came out in October last year so it wasn't as powerful come February as Smash will be this January/February.
