Come on Smash! Don't choke on the last day! One more day like this and you're the new record!
I'm not saying I think Smash is guaranteed to get 2 million FW, but rather that the data we have shows a trend towards higher Switch ratios closer to 1:2000 before digital, and that this would suggest that 2 million is possible, and that Smash would have to actually be a slight outlier to even get as low as 1.5 million. Maybe major games get lower? But Odyssey got 1:2232. Maybe only casual games get higher? Yet Minecraft was 1:744 and 1-2-Switch was 1:585. Honestly there's not much of a pattern to what games get higher or lower, aside from that most of the under 1:1000 games were launch games, and the last game to only get 1:1000 was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (with 1:1075), which was a couple months after launch. Since then the only game under 1:1500 was Minecraft and Splatoon 2's 1:689, but Splatoon 2 was also pretty early, first 4 months. Assuming Smash isn't some crazy low outlier, it'll probably get somewhere between 1:1500 (as Xenoblade Chronicles 2 did with 1:1504) and 1:2500 (as Super Mario Party did with 1:2460). If it super choked and got no points tomorrow, that would mean it gets somewhere between 1.35 million and 2.25 million. If it has a kickass last day and gets to 950 points, that becomes a range of 1.425 million and 2.375 million. So lets go ahead and say that 1.35-2.375 is the expected range barring a major anomaly. Of course, this is based on Media Create, which doesn't track digital, and if digital is approximately 15% of total sales, which wouldn't be too outlandishly high or low for a Nintendo game, that would put the total sales at 1.5 million to 2.8 million (1.35 is about 85% of 1.5, 2.375 about 85% of 2.8). Right in the middle of that with a 1:2000 ratio would put physical+digital sales at 2.1 million for 900 points and 2.235 million for 950 points. So if the outcome is slightly lower than halfway on the expected range it's still 2 million FW physical+digital.
That said 2 million FW still just sounds crazy high for a game in Japan, even a Switch blockbuster, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's only 1.5 million, nor would I be surprised if Media Create shows 1.35 million since it only shows physical. The main point of all this math is that it would take a major outlier for Smash FW in Japan to be below a million FW. Not even that is all that crazy though, as there have been quite a few outliers, but it's been a while since we had one and the odds are in Smash's favor to Smash everyone's expectations.