Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

[setsunatenshi]

Mnementh said:

setsunatenshi said:

The fact is Nintendo Labo bombed and many analysts were attributing the bullish expectations Nintendo set up for the fiscal year to that release. There is plenty of sense, and I agree, Nintendo will not hit their target estimates. Furthermore, without a price cut I think they will be not even close to hitting the expected sales figures. 

So I don't think it's just wild speculation on his part, but yeah people love to make mountains out of molehills when actually something pretty uncontroversial was said (and factual too). He's not saying Nintendo will only sell 8M, rather that they are on track to that figure based on the recent sales numbers and extrapolating based on that. Probably a more complete answer would be "Nintendo tracking to 8M, meaning it's very unlikely they will hit the 20M estimates they set out at the start" (don't remember if it was 20M, but it was somewhere around there).

First, I don't see Labo as a bomb, Nintendo sees sales in line with their expectations:

https://gonintendo.com/stories/311497-nintendo-labo-has-met-expectations-and-will-continue-to-be-supp

Now that can be some marketing BS, but I think many here who expected more saw Labo as some sort of Wii Sports, which it is certainly not. So, putting it on Labo is unjustified, it is pretty clear that Smash and Pokemon Let's Go are the titles that are intended to push sales.

Secondly, what he saying is no valid extrapolation. He is an analyst and knows well that Q3 will be much bigger than the other quarters. Linear extrapolation from Q1 is wrong - and Pachter knows that. So his 8M figure is just BS to gain attention (which worked). It is in no way correct extrapolation.

Where is one way to say it seems unlikely for Nintendo to hit 20M, and another to frame it with this ridiculous 8M number.

Of course it's said in a satirical tone, but it's to illustrate the point that the 20M target was beyond any sort of reasonable target unless you admit this Labo was something Nintendo were banking on spreading like wild fire. So yeah, in that sense it bombed hard. Then you look at the software Nintendo is releasing this year, so go ahead and tell me where exactly do you justify it selling better than last year? Smash!? A crappy pokemon remake from the gameboy era? Unless they are planning some significant price cut, then I'm not seeing it. They will be forced to cut those targets, but hey that's just my guess.

Maybe the recent piracy developments will cause a surge of sales though, that can somewhat mitigate the Labo debacle.