TheWPCTraveler said:
This post got me thinking, how does the sales breakdown go for the rest of the fiscal year based on what we already know? So, here's my personal take on the sales breakdown you're asking for. For First-Party Releases (FY 3/2019) : Total = 28.5 million Super Mario Party = 3 million Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (New Funky Mode) = 800k Sushi Striker: The War of Sushido = 200k Since I'm feeling generous, I'll say that Fire Emblem: Three Houses will make it to Q4 FY3/2019 and will sell a million copies. Older First-Party Releases: Total = 14.2+ million Super Mario Odyssey = 3 million - I have to admit that I came up with the Xenoblade 2 "prediction" first since I think the Torna DLC will move copies of the game for two distinct reasons: extended word of mouth around the game as a result and people buying the physical copy of Torna standalone without realizing that they need a copy of Xenoblade 2 I'm a bit tired after writing all this down, but it should be pretty obvious by this point that I don't think that the Switch will hit 100 million software sales this fiscal year. There are really only two third-party releases that I'm half-sure will reach at least one million units sold this year, which are Octopath Traveler and Yo-kai Watch 4. so eh |
If you done similar calculation last year in same time for last year, I am pretty sure you would conclude that you think that Switch couldn't sell 70m games in first 13 months on market, but it did.
Dont forget, now in May in US, Switch software had boost of 90% whitout digital sales compared to last May, so with digital sales we talking about at least twice better software sales compared to last year in same time period, and that's without big games this year while last year there were Zelda BotW and MK8D. Also for the record, Nintendo just in January-March period sold 17.8m games, again without big releases. With all that on mind, I expecting that every quarter outside holiday season Switch will sell at least around 15-20m units per quarter (so we talking about 45-60m for 3 quarters) and for November-December period I expect around 50m (only Pokeman+Smash will probably do around 20m).