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pitzy272 on 06 May 2018
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IkePoR said:
LethalP said:

But it's literally a few weeks from passing the lifetime sales of GoW 3, the previous best seller in the series. So then using past games as any indication would be stupid. You seem to have it in your head that Horizon is a bigger franchise than GoW and that it will have better legs. It won't, not because I see the future, but because I have some common sense. GoW has already shown beyond doubt that it will be more successful than Horizon. In literally every single way.

There's an extremely thin chance I'm wrong though, so you can choose to hang on to that if you like.

Whether it passes the lifetime sales of GoW 3 or not isn't the point.  It was you invalidating the method of tracking the game by pointing at Horizon, which is absurd thinking, let alone method, as others have pointed out.  As I've said before, games have tendencies to drop in sales suddenly, which again would be more evidence against... your feelings?  Oh, your common sense.  I suppose the myriad of folks disagreeing with you have no common sense then?

 

You continue to sound ridiculous. You’ve had at least 3 people tell you how wrong you are and cite actual reasonable ways to provide a sales expectation for GoW, and yet you continue to base your prediction solely off the sales of the previous GoW games. As I said to you in the other thread:  Comparing the new GoW to the prior GoW games for sales is entirely nonsensical. 1. This is on the ps4 where, for various reasons, software consistently sells very well—MUCH better than on the ps3 (E.G. Uncharted 4 will end up around 13mil LT sales; highest selling Uncharted game on ps3 is around 7-8mil). 2. This new GoW is MARKEDLY different from the prior games:  It modernized its gameplay; got rid of the tasteless, excessive violence (as well as nudity); and delivered a high quality narrative with great characters (including Kratos—finally) and acting. 

It’s not just Horizon that we can look at to get an idea for GoW’s sales, as I said above:

Uncharted 4:  2.7 mil in 1 wk, 8.7 mil in 8mo (Jan 2017), likely around 10-11 mil now. Likely 12-14 mil lifetime. 

HZD:  2.6 mil in 2 wk, 7.6 mil in 1 year. Likely around 11 mil lifetime.

GoW:  3.1 mil in 3 days. And ontop of better initial sales than U4 and HZD, the legs are looking fantastic so far in the UK and Japan:  35% second week drop in each country, which is almost unheard of for a big, highly anticipated game. And for the UK, 35% drop for GoW compares to a 78% drop for U4 and 60% drop for HZD.

Your argument that GoW will have lifetime sales of 7-8 mil bc “its sales might drop off” is completely baseless to begin with. But the evidence we have thus far says the exact opposite. All signs point to good legs ontop of GoW’s unprecedented initial sales.