| tbone51 said: Only wanted to point out Japan. Its under 3ds but only because switch is still Supply restraint and it'll have a stronger year 2 than 3ds. Hell switch has a chance to do 6mil next year if supply and other factorscome in. Its not guaranteed though but don't look at switch sales lifetime like it'll be under 3ds because 3ds is winning. Don't forget 3ds peak year was year1 |
Switch's supply issue in Japan was sorted out when it's MSRP reached towards within 5% near the end of December so immediate demand was met ...
| VideoGameAccountant said: Well first, PS4 is going to have to make up two gaps: US and Japan. That's the reason PS4 won't beat out Switch. Because consoles are momentum driven and the Switch has stronger momentum than the PS4, Switch will outsell it in those regions. Regardless, let's look at Japan. In about the systems's 4th year, PS4 has sold about 5 million systems in Japan. The system won't be able to break 10 million LTD. The Switch has already sold at least half of that in a single year. Right now, the 3DS has sold 23 million in Japan. If we assume that the Switch sells less (which is dumb and I'll say why in a minute), then the Switch will sell about 20 million LTD in that region. This means, at a minimum, PS4's European sales will have to make up a gap of 10 million plus any gap that comes out of the US. But this is assuming the Switch is closer to 3DS sales than it is to DS sales. The PS2 sold about 23 million units. So Switch could easily sell 25 million units if the pace continues (and given the shortages of even games, I don't see it slowing). The reason the 3DS is selling faster is that it was the successor to the most successful system in Japan. The Switch didn't take off for a few months in Japan like it did in the US because Zelda is less popular there. Once Mario Kart and Splatoon came out, the system became sold out. So when you compare those two systems, a life to date tracking is going to be off because the Switch started slower and ramped up while the 3DS started strong and then fizzled out (which is why the price cut). The idea that PS4 will still outsell Switch is a lack of understanding of simple arithmetic and wishful thinking. In order for PS4 to outsell Switch, the difference in European sales needs to be greater than the difference in both US sales and Japan sales. And Switch isn't doing too bad in Europe as its selling about the same as it is in the US (based on Nintendo earnings releases). Moreover, Europe is not this magical sales region. If you look at historical sales, the best selling systems sold about the same in Europe and the US. PS4 is selling about the same in the US as it is in Europe (only about 3 million off). So no, it's not going to happen. |
That assumes that the Switch will end up with a gap in it's favour or let alone a significant one and consoles are momentum driven but the 3DS with it's price cut has beaten the Switch every month in their first year since August aside from October and December will the 3DS's largest margin of victory yet if Nintendo's own preliminary figures are to be believed ... (~10M as of December 10th and on that same date in the 3DS's first year it was ~9.5M units according VGC in which the 3DS has just reduced the gap to a measly 500K!)
Momentum driven indeed but not in the way you think that the Switch when it's clearly more front loaded than the other systems including the 3DS itself ...
PS4 won't be able to break 10M units even though it's been tracking ahead of the PS3 in Japan for 4 years now in which the PS3 was able to sell 10M units during it's lifetime in Japan ?
You say Switch will outsell PS4 in the US based off of 10 months of data yet I can't use those same 10 months of data against it in Japan compared to the 3DS ? Double standards much ? 
Furthermore you over implicate PS4 surmounting difficulties against building a sizable lead against the Switch in Europe when PS4 in it's lifetime will probably reach having over a 2x advantage against the Switch's predecessor while the Switch itself only has a 4% lead (?!) against the 3DS in Europe during similar point in their lifetimes according to VGC (3DS was at 2.28M units sold in Europe, December 10th 2011 while the Switch totals ~2.37M units at December 9th 2017) plus it's ironic that you describe the 3DS as being "fizzled out" even though it still outsold the Switch in Japan by a comfortable margin during the holidays and will go to do similar numbers with the Switch WW once we have all of the data for the end of last year ...
@Bold This must be what people call "satire" when the so called "VideoGameAccountant" ignores the numbers at hand and the logic that comes with it since it doesn't suit his argument ... 
Also I beg to differ that Europe is not this "magical sales region", maybe not to either Microsoft or Nintendo anymore but it accounts for nearly 40% of Sony's total PS4 hardware sales. It's Japan who is not this magical sales region since PS4 will probably nearly double the deficit it has in Japan with the Switch with the surplus it has in Europe if VGC's numbers are to be believed ...
