DonFerrari said:
VideoGameAccountant said:
Quick reply but from reading through the thread, there are two things I want to point out.
Switch's Early Success Means Future Success
The console business is momentum based. Usually, if you get out the door running, you'll have a successful console. Even in situations where the manufacturer turns it around, it's mostly negligible. The 3DS is a good example of that. After a lackluster launch, Nintendo cut the price by $80 which saved the system. Even still, after 7 years it's only sold about 70 million. The GBA sold 80 million despite only getting about 4 years on the market.
Because the Switch is selling so well in Japan and the US, major publishers are going to be rushing to get games on it. We are already seeing this in Japan and it will likely happen very soon in the US. With news that Switch is the fastest selling console, don't be surprised if the next earnings releases from major US publishers mention that they are making games for the Switch.
This is the momentum. A strong selling console builds an install base. The big install base attracts developers who make more games. More games drive the install base. Even though everyone clamors that the Wii didn't have a lot of third party support, it did get a lot of third party games. It was just that developers often treated them as side projects due to "third party games don't sell on Wii." This isn't the case on Switch with DOOM, Skyrim and Sonic Mania (among others) selling well on the Switch. It will get tons of games that will drive the install base. This is the big takeaway that no one is talking about.
Switch Will Outsell PS4 because Europe is not enough
I don't know why people are still claiming PS4 will outsell Switch worldwide? The Switch is outselling the PS4 in Japan (I think it's at around 40-50% of PS4's LTD sales). It's selling faster than the PS4 in the US. Outselling Switch in Europe won't be enough to put PS4 over Switch. The PS4 would have to sell more than Switch there by a greater margin than Switch outsell PS4 in both Japan and the US. It's not going to happen. Look at the 360. It crushed the PS3 in the US but because it couldn't sell in Japan or Europe (outside of the UK), it was outsold by PS3 worldwide. This is the same scenario here. I don't know why people still think PS4 can beat Switch.
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No man, PS4 is not only winning in Europe, it also wins on RotW, in case you may not remember they still count.
Case in point, PS4 reached 10M 1 week faster than Switch.
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What I'm saying is Switch will outsell PS4 in Japan and US. Based on current trends, that's what is going to happen and because consoles are momentum based (first year determines later years). PS4 did reach 10 million faster but this is considering PS4 launched in November and Switch launched in March, and the difference was only a week. After its firs holiday, it's the fastest selling system in the US. Trend is in Switch;s favor.
