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Hustensaft on 07 January 2018
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VideoGameAccountant said:

Switch Will Outsell PS4 because Europe is not enough
I don't know why people are still claiming PS4 will outsell Switch worldwide? The Switch is outselling the PS4 in Japan (I think it's at around 40-50% of PS4's LTD sales). It's selling faster than the PS4 in the US. Outselling Switch in Europe won't be enough to put PS4 over Switch. The PS4 would have to sell more than Switch there by a greater margin than Switch outsell PS4 in both Japan and the US. It's not going to happen. Look at the 360. It crushed the PS3 in the US but because it couldn't sell in Japan or Europe (outside of the UK), it was outsold by PS3 worldwide. This is the same scenario here. I don't know why people still think PS4 can beat Switch.

Because Japan is a signficantly smaller market compared to EU. Just look at Wii and 3DS sales, and you'll see the difference. While the 3DS sold ~23m in Japan vs. 20m in Europe, the Wii sold 40m in Europe, and only 12m in Japan. The total potential sales in Japan are just that much lower.

xMetroid said:
The thing is the Switch just launch in 2 new regions early December and is (reportedly) launching in China next year. When you see even Pokémon wants to get big time in China from the recent news yesterday, makes you wonder if Nintendo can have a success there. The Switch is perfect for the market and they have huge games coming exclusively on it that are already popular in China. It could really be a game changer.

How is the switch perfect for China? While China is called "mobile" gaming market, this mobility includes one additional factor: "always online". The Switch isn't always online. Physical sales are practically non existent in China, which comes to the second problem the Switch has: limited storage space. Thus we get to the third problem: High spec smartphones are vastly cheaper in china as compared to the west (even starting at 64 GB storage). Lastly, smartphones have signficantly more functionality in China compared to the west (WeChat, WePay, etc.) Unless the Switch takes on all of that, every Chinese will still buy a smartphone (at high specs) that is capable of good mobile gaming. Why would they go for a Switch at that point?

The simplistic logic of "mobile gaming is huge in China" equaling "the switch is a mobile console, therefore it will be a success in China" is flawed on many levels. It ignores the reason for why mobile gaming is big in China. It ignores what "mobile" consists of in China. It ignores other problems the Switch might face in China.

Yes, 王者荣耀 is getting released on Switch in China. But why would you play it on the Switch if you're already playing it on your phone? It's a vastly different scenario from only being able to play Skyrim at home infront of the TV/PC, vs. being able to play Skyrim everywhere, including the potty.