| StarDoor said: Considering how Smash Bros, Pokémon, and Animal Crossing are all 10+ million sellers, what exactly is the problem here? If we look at Nintendo's support for the DS, Wii, 3DS, and Wii U, then we still have time for: Another 3D Zelda |
That's exactly what my problem is ...
How do you expect to increase userbase significantly by releasing the same IPs ? For 3D Zelda and 3D Mario we have BotW and Odyssey respectively, 2D Mario/Zelda already has overlap with the customers of the 3D games ... (you could potentially sell more hardware with a new Zelda and Mario Kart since the first releases on the Switch were shared with the WII U but even that install base is already transitioning to the Switch bit by bit everyday with other games releasing for it thus lowering potential to sell new hardware in the future)
Just getting one generation of a new Pokemon game is enough to get a high rate of saturation on hardware sales gains but getting a second Pokemon game to have the same effect to a significant portion would mean that the Pokemon IP would have to undergo some growth in the same generation but that just breaks precendent from what we know so far (Gold/Silver sold less than Red/Blue on the GB, FireRed/LeafGreen sold less than Ruby/Sapphire on GBA, Black/White sold less than Diamond/Pearl on the DS and Sun/Moon sold less than X/Y on the 3DS, practically all second iterations of Pokemon games sold less than the first release on the same platform so I don't see the logic behind a second iteration having the same effect to the magnitude of selling the hardware)
| StarDoor said: And then we have Nintendo's B-list games, which may not sell 10 million, but are still vital for any console's lineup: 3D Metroid (already confirmed) Finally, since Mario Kart and Splatoon launched so early in the generation and were heavily based on their Wii U predecessors, we could easily see Mario Kart 9 and Splatoon 3 launch sometime in the early 2020s. There will certainly be no shortage of system-selling Nintendo games for the Switch. |
Well that's just it, Nintendo's B-list is only as big as it's flagship ...
Nintendo can try to ride it out with Metroid, Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, Donkey Kong, Mario Party, Yoshi and Kirby but then soon enough Nintendo will face the problem of needing new IPs to grow hardware sales or having the IPs themselves grow (rare) ...
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has sold 3.5M copies so far and Splatoon 2 is a full sequel to the previous game and I can't understand why you're discounting that the sequel wouldn't be able to also sell new hardware to the majority of it's previous customers until the next sequel comes out ...
You say no shortage but all we've been doing is not taking into account how much overlaps will factor in too ... (It's not going to be necessarily a bad thing that Nintendo can't sell more hardware either when they can depend on selling more software to established install base.)
40M units sounds like it's obviously in the cards at this point but by the end of 2019, we'll have seen the majority of what the most the Switch already has to offer with existing IPs ...
