Nintendo's install base shrunk from 250 million in Gen 7 to ~80 million in Gen 8

[Zod95]

Anfebious said:

Zod95 said:

Regarding my sig, I still believe it will be only 20M for the simple reason that I'm not expecting NS to replace 3DS. All my reasoning in this tread has been assuming the opposite and in that sense 80M won't represent a success. If Nintendo launches a new handheld soon and NS sells 80M anyway, then I will consider it a clear success.

Are you really going to stick by that prediction? You are starting to sound like a negative version of Johnlucas!

If you look to the history of predictions in my signature (which I never erase) I stick to every prediction for at least a year. And I intend to continue to do so. And even when I make new predictions, I tend not to deviate far away from the previous ones.

My predictions come from macro-analysis and they are for long periods of time. Some of them are bold but sometimes they are actually more right than the thinking in vogue at the time. Like X1 selling 70% of PS4 when both were perfoming similar and X1 had more margin to lower the price + Halo yet to come. Like the WiiU selling 25M when most people were pointing to 80M-100M. Like X1 selling 40M when today people think that's an incredibly low number. And now the Switch, where no one is sharing my view at the moment but some months/years later that can be common sense.

...Or I'm wrong and then I failed at my analysis. I will be here with my signature intact to accept the mistake. I'm not Johnlucas, who makes insane predictions with no basis and then runs when things get sour. Then it's cheap to be crazy. Try to do what I do and then you'll feel the burden that makes you to be as neutral and rigorous as possible.