Maybe?
I assume your definition of success is its sales numbers when compared to Playstations and SNES.
We know 3rd parties were already pissed at Nintendo, so given the promise of Sony's new entry, they were likely moving away from Nintendo anyways.
Had Nintendo moved to the cheaper disc solution, then it is possible some 3rd parties may have not risked a new platform (Sony) over the proven Nintendo line.
This also ignores that even if Nintendo used discs, Sony also has always allowed media playback, in this case CD music. Nintendo has never allowed this.
Lastly, this ignores any 1st party games that were big hits for Sony, but SEGA always had big hits too and that didn't compare to a combination of Nintendo 1st party and nearly all 3rd party on a single system.
I guess it goes back to 'maybe' for me. At this time Nintendo's model was same as MSony now. High end platform with all games. But I don't think Nintendo would have retained all 3rd party support due to their licensing model. To me that was a bigger factor than cost of carts.
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