I think I figured it out. Zero's bragging about how he was pushing Mr.P's lynch last game had me on edge thinking he was doing the same with Trucks this game. It didn't help that I made the early assumption that Mr.P must be town if Stefl is town. Nor did it help thinking with so much emphasis on flavor that a Dreamer is probable. It's my fault for not believing a Jack claim with all the flips and trusting those claims over trusting the Jack claim and scrutinizing the others.
This is pretty clear in Baalz' actions today of hanging on to any hope of not lunching Trucks. Asking zero if he thought Mr.P would hammer him made me question why there hasn't been a hammer on Trucks. Thinking back to Day One, Mr.P was one of the people that just wanted a hasty end to the Day. What's different now? The likely answer is they're scrummates too.
Then FF's vote for zero is pretty strange. He's played off my logic too much without offering much opinion in why to trust me. Plus his last post indicates he has little reason to trust Trucks as town regardless of zero's alignment. And if he's a vig thinking he can save town if it's a mislynch, there's little difference between choosing between Trucks and zero anyway. So why hasn't he hammered Trucks? I turn to my point of the SK needing to play the numbers game. We've been assuming it's likely a 4 man mafia team with a vig, but a SK might think a 3-man team is more likely. If he lynches town toDay it becomes a situation where town can't lynch him or mafia wins. Lynching mafia means he needs to shoot towards a townie or he gets lynched for not shooting certain scum, but if mafia are eliminated too quickly the question becomes why haven't the kills stopped?
If it's only a 3-man team with SK then now is our only chance to take him out before we need to keep him alive. If it's 4-man plus SK then we're just waiting for the ship to sink while they fight over who wins.
Vote: Final-Fan
Sorry zero, I think your avatar instilled some kind of hatred in me.
