AmishGramish on 10 January 2007
sieanr said:
Well I thought they had the numbers for each years sales, not the cumulative sales per year. Still, they are predicting 18.5 million PS3's sold this year, which just isn't happening even if GT5 and MGS4 launch this year(which they won't)
I remember reading analyst perditions on how the PSX would fail and the 64 or Saturn would dominate, so I honestly don't feel like finding analyst predictions since I think their relatively irrelevant. As you said, we'll just have to wait and you can find them by yourself with Google or just look through some gaming blogs(new analyst predictions come out at least once a week)
But I would like to know where Merrill Lynch said the PS3 would launch for $800. They did say thats approximately how much it cost to produce(which is correct), but they also predicted in Nov. '05 that it would fetch $500, which was partially true.
I put a hell of allot more stock in predictions from people in the industry as they actually know their head from their ass.
It would be extremely hard for Sony to make 18.5M PS3s by the end of the year, but we'll just have to see.
Analysts also thought that the PSP would win the handheld war (They didn't count how Nintendo has owned that market for nearly 20 years), and look at it now. But now a lot of analysts are thinking that the distance between the PSP and DS is going to shrink in the coming years.
And Merrill Lynch said that the PS3 would cost $800 to make in spring 06 and would drop $320 in one year, but they said around that time that the PS3 would sell for $800 for two years. (They seem contradictory to me)
Well, these people are paid to analyze the market, and they have to analyze what the trends of the people that buy them are, what types and quality of games have come out for similar consoles, and many more things. (This is what I do, but I don't get paid 
)
Well, we truly never know what will happen until the time comes, but when there is an overwhelming support of one console (most say it will be close), you can't just let that information pass.
