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The gains it will make will be mostly from Europe and rest of world. We probably will not get very good numbers on these areas, so it will be hard to tell. Sony Forecasted 10.5m between both Qs. Q4 is likely to be 3m.

So 7.5m is left for Q3 (Holidays). It might be undershot and they may ship 8m-9m, but that leaves only about 7m-8m sold. That is still less then PS2's second holiday.

In short, surely pass PS2's 1st holiday, and a chance for 3rd. But not likely for it's second.