I believe the issue for a near 3-way tie will be the question of how soon the Wii (if it does) gets an early console revision. %-wise, this will be the closest ever, but I still think the difference between #1 and #2 will be somewhere near 15 million units. The Wii obviously has the momentum - It sells well worldwide (unlike the 360) and is cheap (unlike the PS3), but doesn't have the power, nor ability (IMO) to capture graphics junkies and more casual markets with games like GTA, Final Fantasies, and other PS2 titles that have yet to goto the Wii party. Having said this, again, it comes down to if Nintendo bows out the Wii due to HD penetration and follows with a beefed up Wii. If it doesn't, it'll probably give Sony a run for its money, as Sony is the only compeditor with the ability to sell worldwide. The 360 would easily be the major threat to Nintendo, but it's lack of any sort of Japaneese sales prevents it from beating a true worldwide threat. Personally, I see the PS3 still coming out on top due to the fact it will do well everywhere, and won't get a console revision, as Sony can't afford it. However, if Sony did win, it'd be at a huge loss and they run the risk of having to either bow out or merge on a PS4 with MS or someone else (Apple? Of course, MS owns a large % of Apple anyways) So again, my predictions made a year ago - PS3 at 70 to 75m units (6-7 year lifespan due to Sony losing massive $$$, eventually doing well w/w, but only due to Sony trying to pull a PS2 and have sales after the next-gen is out) 360 at 50-55m (due to 35m units, a near PS2-type sale in the US, and better/suprising numbers in Japan and Europe vs. last cycle) Wii at 47.5m-52.5m (yes, strange, but I believe Nintendo will cut Wii production off in 3-4 years in favor of a Wii 2. If Wii 2 counted toward the Wii's total, I'd change this, but for sake of argument and keeping numbers from a year ago, I do not include it). So overall, the Wii will win in terms of # sold per year worldwide, Sony wins a superficial "win" by selling the most systems despite letting it become old on the market, and MS wins because they now own a dominating share in the US, a good share in Europe, and an improving share in Japan and other territories. So a tie can be seen in various ways. A real tie will be that most developers are tied in who they support - we won't see developers go all-in on the Wii, PS3 or 360, but split. Some will dev for the 360/PS3 as they are, some will move to the Wii, even more move between all 3. Really, the words of sony will come true though: most devs go multi-plat, forcing each console maker to have their own studios. Next generation will be the battle of the studios, not the hardware itself.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
