GTA IV the beginning of the end of the XBOX 360?

[MikeB]

I always marked the release of Metal Gear Solid 4 as the beginning of the end of the 360 era. The 360 is due for a pricecut in North America and I expect the console to do well enough for 2008, but PS3/360 worldwide install base should IMO become close (Good for the PS3 considering a much higher entry price and the 1 year and 5 months or more headstart for the 360 for most of the world).

2009 I expect the PS3 to hit the final blow, no remaining popular XBox games to see sequels on the 360 (this year there's still Star Wars and Fable to push for upgrades, still many million of North American XBox users haven't upgraded despite this platforms total early demise nearly 3 years ago and nearly all popular XBox games having seen sequels on the 360).

I expect increased competition with the PS3 and market saturation to hit the platform very significantly for 2009.