The issue that Pachter seems to not understand (and in fact the issue Sony themselves seem to not understand) is the buying habits of the casual consumer. There are 3 factors to sell systems to casual buyers:
1.) The price. This is an obvious one. Historically, casual buyers will not purchase a system above $200. The PS3 will never reach this, and the 360 won't till near the end of the generation (not counting the core, which will never sell). Neither the PSone nor the PS2 experienced much success at all till they were below this price point. They were the first 2 real casual market systems.
2.) The most games. Another one that you would think is obvious, but for some reason people seem to miss. Casual consumers walk into a Walmart and see a wall full of PS2 games in front of them. In the back are cases less than half the size with Gamecube and Xbox games. They buy the PS2, because it has the most games. This is exactly what's going to happen to the Wii (and is already happening). It has more games than the PS3 and is gaining on the 360 fast. The game racks are in the front of the stores, right where random casual buyers will see them. It's the same deal with the DS vs. the PSP. The DS wall is twice as large, so it attracts the casual.
3.) The "next big thing." I always hear fanboys and analysts talk about some supposed Sony "brand loyalty." There is no such thing to the casual consumer. To the contrary, they are always looking for something completely new, and unique. They aren't loyal to a brand, because they are CASUAL. They buy whatever interests them at the moment. In this way, the hype behind the Wii is a giant beast that feeds off of itself and expands. The fact that it's always sold out, word of mouth, and the media hype behind the system just send the Wii into a state of exponential growth. The same thing happened with the PS2 and PSone. It has the media attention, and that's ALL it takes for the casual. The people who are talking about 80 million PS2 owners sitting and waiting are crazy. 80 million PS2 owners were casual, and they are buying the new casual system. The hardcore barely make a dent on the market, and they are the only ones who have anything like brand loyalty (and certainly not all of them either).
