Xbox Undertracked!!

[binary solo]

Ka-pi96 said:

binary solo said:

Freudian slip? LoL. if you want to make sure there is no accidental or deliberate misinterpretation you should write "...for XB1 and a dying 360."

Anyway, 3.3M on shelves across both systems is not as big a discrepancy as it looks. I wouldn't be surprised if Xb one had 1.5 million on shelves at present. That's about the maximum extent of what I think might be in the retail channels so for a what's possible analysis I think you can say 1.5M of that 3.3M is Xb one.

So that leaves 1.8M for 360, I agree that's too much, but not so much as to be an outrageous discrepancy. Even for a dying system 1 million in the retail channel is within the bounds of possibility, considering all the markets and retail outlets they need to have covered. 360 is still being actively marketed, indeed here it's probably being marketed more strongly than XB one. All the boxing day sale ads were PS4 and Xbox 360 for instance, no Xb one boxing day promotions. In terms of what's possible I think 800K-1 million on shelves is theoretically possible. MS could, for instance, have decided to ship out half a year's worth of projected 360 sales. And if MS is looking to kill off 360 manufacturing this year they might want to get end of life inventory out into the retail channels sooner rather than later.  

360 could be, IMO, up to 1 million undertracked, which is only 1.16% error. but even at 1.5M it's still only a 1.74% error. If it wasn't for the fact that this error rate is the difference between being ahead of PS3 and being behind PS3 would this thread actually exist? Or would we say, actually VGC's LTD tracking of 360 isn't too bad. IMO, objectively speaking if the LTD for a console on VGC is within 2% of actual sales (which no one knows with 100% accuracy) that is good enough for all practical purposes.

Most of the current 360 sales and marketing is in the US though, one country doesn't need that much stock. Besides I remember people claiming 400k on shelves was way too much for the Wii U, because of its low sales, earlier in the year. Of course I disagree and think 400k was pretty reasonable, but considering the 360 is selling less than the Wii U it is logical that retailers would order less stock right? So the stock levels would be more likely to around the 400k level than the 800k-1m level.

Besides that 1.5m for Xbox One really does seem a lot. This is the stock levels at the end of December we are talking about, right after all of their sales and deals and all the xmas shopping. Stock on shelves would probably be at their lowest at that point of the year.

It's about what's possible. No one knows stock inventory absolutely and as far as we know no one knows sell through absolutely. Until MS comes out and says X.Y million sell through it's all largely guess work. Is it possible for 1.5M Xb one's to be on shop shelves? Yes, I think that's possible. Is it possible that there's less than that? Yes it's possible. I don't think it's likely there's more than 1.5 million on shelves. For the purposes of assessing the tracking performance of VGC it would seem that the curernt Xb one LTD is pretty good, perhaps a little over tracked, probably not undertracked. Potentially dead on to within just a few thousand units. 

In terms of 360 LTD, being less than 2% out (undertracked) is objectively pretty good. As I said, the only reason people are making a thing about this level of potential undertracking is becuase it's the difference between 2nd and 3rd for gen 7. In 5 year's time if PS4 is at 80 million and Xb one is at 35 million will people really get animated about Xb one being 1 million undertracked (or over tracked)? 36 (or 34) million vs 35 million is neither here nor there in terms of Xb one's objective performance for the generation. And 84.5M vs 86M is also neither here nor there in terms of 360's objective performance for gen 7.