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Aura7541 on 05 June 2014
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TheDrill said:
Aura7541 said:

Yes, the difference matters. You did not read my previous comment, did you?

"Let's say 3 years later, PS4 is at 55 million and X1 is at 45 million. That's a 10 million gap. The amount of time for the X1 to overcome that gap will take longer than overcoming a 600k gap. Let's say MS wants to overcome that 10 million gap in a year. They need to outsell the PS4 by 833,333 units a month versus 50,000 a month if they want to outsell the PS4 if the gap is 600k. That is a 1666.66% difference!!"

Point being, time is ticking for the X1 for every month that passes by and the gap has been getting larger over the course of this year. Rankings from retailers like Amazon and Gamestop show that there is not enough interest for the Xbox One-only SKU for the console to outsell its competitor, so the best X1 can do is to reduce the gap per month. The overall gap, though, is going to keep growing. 

I understand all that, the point is it's only the beginning of the generation and currently the gap is not that great, if X1 sells good during holidays alone it can shrink that gap by 50 %.

Furthermore even with a 10 million gap at 45 million it still represens a considerable chunk, assuming 55 million for PS4, it's 45 %, almost half, so it's not that bad.

The gap is already pretty great. The X1 has not outsold the PS4 in any of the months of 2014. Despite the Titanfall hype train, the PS4 managed to outsell the X1 in March by ~80k. The SKU has considerably worse value than the Titanfall and Forza bundles. The bundles cost $499. When you subtract the cost of the game and Kinect ($160), you virtually get an X1 for $339. That's much better value.

Furthermore, the 55 million PS4 vs 45 million X1 is merely an example to prove my point that you cannot rely on just percentages. Glad that you understand that point. The PS4 is going to take up more than 55% marketshare because of better 3rd party support, 1st party support, specs, and so on. No one is going to buy an inferior console for the same price. Look at what Watch Dogs did. It moved much more hardware on the PS4 than on the X1. The longer the gap remains this big or even larger, the harder it'll be for the X1 to outsell the PS4. That ultimately debunks your OP.