I really doubt Wii Fit U will become a phenomenon like the original game. However, if distributed and marketed correctly, it could still be both a software success and something that drives hardware sales.
Nintendo needsto do the following:
1. Differentiate it from the original game! Key to success is to make people KNOW it's a completely NEW game, based on a new hardware concept.
2. Use retail stores as the PRIME way of distribution, and build parts of the marketing around that, with certain Wii Fit U boths in the largest retail stores. Also have a Wii Fit U tour during the spring and summer with fitnes celebrities attached to it.
E-shop should just be a secondary way of distribution, since the casual game consumers that Wii Fit U is meant to attract don't use e-shop as much as hardcore game consumers.
3. Have a clear product message and MARKET IT to the RIGHT audience. In other words use different markting channels than with regular game consumers.
4. Sell a Wii Fit U hardware package including the regular Wii U hardware system, a Fit Meter, Wii Fit U and a BLACK Balance Board. Also throw in an exclusive trendy exercise outfit in the package to add value.
5. Pray that consumers see it as something much more than the gimmick the original game actually was.
With the above, I believe Nintendo could reignite the Wii Fit brand, and Wii Fit U could hit worldwide sales of atleast 5 million copies, and probably also add close to 5 million in hardware sales.
Unfortunately it seems Nintendo believes the "game" will sell on its brand alone, and therefore I even doubt it can reach sales of 1 million includingboh retail and e-shop.
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