UNITY - Nintendo & Wii U Finish The REVOLUTION

[johnlucas]

Fusioncode said:

That was an entertaining post and all, but you failed to talk about the most important problem about the WiiU. The sales. Why in the world do you think it's going to sell 35 million units by the end of 2014 when it's doing absolutely terrible right now. You said the big turnaround for the WiiU started with Wind Waker, the price drop, and 3D World. Yet the sales are still horrible. It sold 220k in the entire month of November during the US. That's beyond pathetic. If the WiiU fails your first prediction, doesn't it make sense that the second one will fail too? Especially since it's even crazier than the first. Unless of course you believe it's going to sell 7.5m units in December.

You're not paying attention, Fusioncode.
I should have put this fact into the Mummelamnn rebuttal but that thing was long enough as it was.
Wii U had a good launch & if you doubt that refer to this story from ComputerandVideoGames (CVG) posted on VGChartz.

GameStop halts Wii U pre-orders due to 'overwhelming demand'
Excerpt:

US games retail giant GameStop has stopped taking pre-orders on Nintendo's Wii U console due to 'overwhelming demand'.

The firm announced today that it has instead "created a Wii U wait list exclusively for members of its PowerUp Rewards loyalty program".

GameStop president Tony Bartel blamed the rushing Nintendo fans. "Demand for Wii U has been off the charts, he said, "and we know many of our PowerUp Rewards members are anxious to get their hands on one."

"We're happy to offer our customers this exclusive opportunity to join the wait list for this must-have item," added Bartel...

...GameStop isn't the only US retailer to halt Wii U pre-orders - Target stopped taking orders on its website earlier this week.

You see this? This is from last year. 2012.
This is why I KNOW you can't get caught up in launch hype. The Dreamcast was like this back in 1999 too.
The PS3 had people getting shot in the streets for it! Launch hype is NOT a proper barometer in itself to determine the life of a console.

After this good launch, Wii U FLATLINED. And flatlined HARD.
The sales Wii U made for most of this year have been abysmal.
It's easy to understand why so many people make the mistake of the console being doomed.

In that rebuttal to Mummelmann, you will see me post articles from around October 2011 when 3DS was struggling.
I'll post it again for you. It was from radishhead, one of the VGChartz moderators.
So after the NPD, is 3DS doomed again?
Excerpt:

"Well, it turns out that the effect of the pricecut for the 3DS wasn't as great as expected, and with Nintendo supposedly losing money of every system sold (and software hasn't been that great either) - is the 3DS doomed?"

Once again you see an underwhelming NPD result, a price drop with limited effect, weaker than expected software sales.
The 3DS was considered doomed too. It looked BAD in 2011. I remember this since I was still keeping up with game news at that time in 2011.
But then something happened in 2012. The system made a full recovery & now as we stand in 2013 it's the hottest console on the market.

Wii U HAS improved even if the raw numbers aren't as high as some people want yet.
I looked at Japan's week-by-week Wii U sales for this year & in recent months that thing was only selling around 3,000 a week compared to PS3's 12,000 a week total.
Then as I predicted in this thread, Wii Party U sparked up Japan.
The week Wii Party U came out Wii U went from that 3,000 a week total to almost 40,000 that week.
After that Wii U's numbers stayed well above the PS3 in Japan. It has finally emerged from the 7th gen shadow in Japan.

It always takes awhile before new consoles come out of the shadow of last gen consoles. Sometimes sooner, sometimes later but it takes time.
I remember when the PS2 was still outselling the XBox 360 in 2006 in America. PS2 outsold the 360 both in November AND December of 2006.
The 360 was over one full year into its life & it was STILL getting outsold by a last gen console.
The 360 didn't get out of PS2's shadow in America until August 2007! The month before Halo 3 came out!
That's almost 2 years, fusioncode!

Wii U broke from the 7th gen shadow in Japan a month shy of a full year.
Japan's Wii U has NOT had a price cut either by the way.

And remember the realities of the Japanese market. The PS3 was the defacto ONLY console in Japan (the 360 is a non-factor).
Nintendo de-powered the original Wii & left the PS3 with the entire Japanese home console market.
That's how the PS3 eventually edged out the 360 in worldwide sales.
So the fact that Wii U broke through the barrier in about a year is pretty good.
ESPECIALLY as bad as it was selling before that.

Many people forget that Japan is the Capital of the Videogame World.
Nintendo put that capital there from the United States when they took over in the 1980s.
That's why most of your console makers have been Japanese companies since that time.
Nintendo, Sega, NEC, SNK, Sony, Bandai.
What happens in Japan influences the rest of the world for videogames.

That's why I said it wasn't a wise move for Sony to not launch the PS4 in Japan this year.
Yeah sure, they'll probably have a hot launch too when they finally do launch in Japan but by then Wii U will have worked out their game droughts & start putting out those megatons.
PS4 will have to deal with their own droughts while Wii U gets more & more name value & face time.
Since it's already cheaper with a stronger library & absolute backwards compatibility, it's gonna have an advantage over the PS4 which can't use PS3 discs.

In Japan, there is only Sony & Nintendo.
Sony has ALWAYS done backwards compatibility. The PS3 has become a respectable console in Japan.
The PS4 is gonna suffer because of its lack of backwards compatibility & the shadow of the PS3 in Japan.
If Nintendo capitalizes on Sony's conflict here, they will win Japan which means winning the Japanese developers.
The first to concede the standoff will be the Japanese 3rd party.
There's a reason why Capcom suddenly moved Monster Hunter from Sony to Nintendo.
There's a reason why Enix of Square-Enix moved Dragon Quest from Sony to Nintendo.
They may hold out on them in "The West" but in "The East" they can't play those kinds of games anymore.
Capcom is almost out of money. Konami has shrunk in output. Holding out on Nintendo is gonna start hurting these guys' pocketbooks.
They will either bunch up with Nintendo exclusively or they'll share their titles on both Sony's & Nintendo's platforms.
Either way Nintendo wins. They get the games to fill out their library.

Wii U hits Japan with Wii Party U & awakens the console.
Super Mario 3D World sells evergreen drawing people to the console bit by bit.
People have MASSIVELY misunderstood Super Mario 3D World's impact in Japan. Mario titles are always evergreen not front-loaded & sell throughout the life of the console. And also all you can see is the RETAIL sales. Remember that Wii U sells digital copies too.
As Wii U rolls into 2014, they hit the spring with big titles most likely being Super Smash Bros. & Mario Kart.
This coincidentally lines up around the time of PS4's launch.

Look at the pattern between Wii & Wii U in Japan.
Wii gets a landmark Mario title (Super Mario Galaxy) for the end of 2007 (November 1st). They go into 2008 with a Super Smash Bros. title (Brawl–January 31st) quickly followed by a Mario Kart title (Mario Kart Wii–April 10th).

Wii U gets a landmark Mario title (Super Mario 3D World) for the end of 2013 (November 21st). They go into 2014 with a Super Smash Bros. title quickly followed by a Mario Kart title.

By the way that pattern ALSO applies to America. Big Mario title for the holidays. Roll into into the tax-refund filled spring with Smash Bros. & Mario Kart.
They also added Wii Fit for Wii last time for extra destruction.

Once Nintendo locks down Japan, THEN they move into America, the biggest money market.
Here they fight off the Japanese 3rd party AND the "Western" 3rd party AKA the bitter PC brigade forced to come to consoles to make money.
It's a harder fight here than in Japan but with Japan subdued they can lessen that Japanese friction in "The West" & take on the non-Japanese 3rds.
The Japanese 3rd party will flesh out Wii U's library & make it distinct & appealing amidst the "Western" style of development with sports sims, military shooters, & orcs.
With Wii U having that headstart & having worked out the kinks, the library from both Nintendo AND the Japanese 3rds will hold its own against the PS4 & One.
It already made the price drop so it's more for your money as you can see from Metallicube's story.

Wii U suffers from Wii holdouts. I was one of those Wii holdouts. I went to Wal-Mart to buy some 3DS games recently & the sales clerk mentioned getting some games for Wii for her & her grandkids. She plays games too. Cool!
As she was talking about this she suddenly mentioned not quite trusting that Wii U. "I don't know about that Wii U," I think she said.
I told her that every Wii U has a Wii in it.
Everything from Wii from controllers to games to balance boards, EVERYTHING works on Wii U.
She said she didn't know that & it improved her viewpoint on the console.
Yes she was in the electronics department but you know how some people don't everything about what they sell in stores like these.
There's a holding pattern waiting to be broken on Wii U. Bit by bit the Wii holdouts break.
I broke. Metallicube recently broke. And lots more people will eventually break.

AS they break, the thing that will cause Wii U to reach these heights I'm predicting is the Miiverse.
Parents finally have a Facebook that they can trust their kids with. It's the internet WITHOUT the dark side.
So many positive supportive people on the Miiverse. Drawings galore. No negativity. No nastiness.
Once this is fully understood Wii U will once again enshrine Nintendo as the Parent's Choice.
ALWAYS have kids in your fanbase. That's how your fanbase grows. They grow up & then pass it on to THEIR kids.
Michael Jackson ALWAYS understood the importance of appealing to children. Bill Cosby understood this as well.

But Miiverse won't be just good for kids alone. Nintendo has just added 3DS to the Miiverse.
3DS will cross-pollinate audiences with Wii U. That same old handheld/home console synergy Nintendo is famous for. CONNECTIVITY.
It will work better than ever before this generation. And let me explain why.
From the GBA back there were wires in the way between handhelds or home consoles.
During the DS/Wii days there were no more wires & the systems were online for play but the interplay between the 2 consoles though great were limited.
THIS time both consoles have robust network capabilities (online multiplayer is just a small part of what I'm talking about).
From the start they were designed to draw people together through their online network functions.
Look at how much Streetpass/Spotpass is doing for the 3DS. The evolved Tag Mode of certain DS games now inherently & specifically built into the design of the handheld console.
Wii U has this same kind of inherent viral nature built into the core of the console.
And now BOTH of these consoles will interact??? Think about that.

Miiverse is accessible through any device: PC, smartphone, tablet. Along with the Wii U & 3DS.
It's a game-focused community much like VGChartz is a game-focused community.
But Miiverse has the power of infinite broadcast within it.
Whatever buzz you can stir up in the Miiverse spreads out to everything that USES the Miiverse.
And vice versa whatever buzz you stir up on the 3DS spreads out to the Miiverse & everything that uses it.
Watch what happens when that Smash Bros. comes out with smooth online multiplayer AND the Miiverse communities buzzing about it as it ping-pongs from Wii U to 3DS versions.
Nintendo won't even NEED gaming media. They'll create the buzz all by themselves.
Why do you think we have seen the emergence of Nintendo Direct? Why do you think Nintendo blows off E3 staging their own event?
They're creating a self-originated media of their own. All they got to do is get the first entries into this Miiverse & then it becomes self-perpetuating.

After Nintendo powers the Wii U through the Miiverse & the games from themselves & the Japanese 3rds, they put pressure on the American market which causes PS4 & XBox One to fight against the tide. Both consoles don't want to get wet so they fight each other to avoid the watery tide.
One of them will cripple the other one. Sony's money is weak & they are absolutely dependent on PS4 being a record success & nothing less.
Microsoft has plenty of money but only 2 markets to sell in—mostly the American one. There will be no Japan for XBox this go 'round either.
So if Sony has the PS4 cripple XBox One in America, that will be the Achilles' heel for Microsoft's gaming chances.
They're nothing without America. Most of Europe is lukewarm towards the XBox—U.K. being an exception.
If Microsoft puts money pressure on the PS4 through XBox One, then Sony will have to spend to keep up with them but with their credit rating hanging around junk status territory they might not have the funds for an extended fight.
Take out XBox One in America, XBox One is done. Take out PS4 in a spending war, PS4 is done.
All Nintendo has to do is get rid of one or the other.

And once either the XBox One or the PS4 has to fold, then the "Western" 3rd party developers cannot depend on that two-platform PlayStation/XBox combo to sell their games. They're not going to the PC since most of them ran away from PC in the first place.
Mobile is too shaky & unreliable a market or they would already be THERE trying to make their money.
They will reluctantly have to share their games with Nintendo. They will reluctantly have to share their games with Wii U.
That enhances Wii U's library immensely. Wii U is cheaper than whichever competitor is left.
Wii U's online capabilities will be infectious.
Eventually more people will just pick the Wii U. Wash, rinse, repeat.
See what I mean about that '1st party + 2nd party + 3rd party = Nintendo's party' line?

As Nintendo pursues this strategy in America, they will see Europe last.
They have always been weaker in Europe & it goes all the way back to the NES days in the 1980s.
Atari Corporation blocked them from taking full root in that market.
Nintendo would subsequently not always release certain games in Europe or some other issue due to their weaker presence there.
Sony a much bigger company with vast resources was better able to serve Europe in the console market.
Nintendo has favor there but Sony is strong in Europe.
The fallout from Nintendo's Japan strategy & Nintendo's American strategy will filter into Europe.
Europe is either going to side with the XBox this generation or the PlayStation out of the non-Nintendo consoles.
There's gonna be a shift here based on what happens in the rest of the world.
If PS4 wins the battle for Sony, then Nintendo will have to siphon off PS4's audience aggressively using aspects of their American game library strategy (Nintendo & the Japanese 3rd party).
If XBox One wins the battle for Microsoft, then Nintendo will just pile on with their Japanese strength & associated entities to smother the "Western" 3rd party's titles.
Europe will be the last to fall in the standoff.

Knowing this, I'm not worried if my 12 million at end of 2013 call misses.
It just means Nintendo is slower out of the gate & they'll catch it up in 2014.
I maintained that while Wii started fast & ended slow, Wii U started slow & ended fast.
Wii U will be built on the weight of its momentum.
All they have to do is break some of that standoff & the audience will follow the library.
As more audience piles on, the more powerful Wii U gets & the stronger its momentum carries.

The whole plan was to get 3DS off the ground. Nintendo ALWAYS works from their handhelds first.
Now that 3DS is secure, they will secure Wii U.
Both the 3DS & Wii U carry the entirety of their predecessors within them.
3DS does virtually everything DS does (except GBA slot stuff). Wii U does ABSOLUTELY everything Wii does.
The transference of DS's soul to the 3DS body caused a lag until the spirit awakened.
The transference of Wii's soul to the Wii U body similarly causes a lag until that spirit awakens.
It's waking up right now, fusioncode.

The next few years are going to be fascinating.
John Lucas