zorg1000 said:
Grand Theft Auto, Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Metal Gear, Medal of Honor, Crash Bandicoot, Madden, Need For Speed. if u look at the top 20 best selling PS2 games, it only had 2 new ips, Kingdom Hearts and Guitar Hero. |
This. Arguements including the PS2 are frankly unfair. There are a lot of things that contributed to it's dominant success. The biggest thing, wether "gamers" like to beleive it or not, is the inclusion of a DVD player. That becomes obvious when one looks at software sales. Compare them to the equally as successful DS. The DS is beyond all doubt the more successful system. Notice how most of those games are now multiplats, where as most were exclusives before. Why isn't this the case with the Wii? Because the PS2 had a higher install base than both consoles combined. That didn't happen with the PS3 and it won't happen with the PS4.
Most people bought the PS2 as a cheap DVD player. The software sales proves it. Most people bought the original PS as a cheap CD player. The software sales prove it. Most people bought the PS3 as a cheap Blu ray player. The software sales prove it. Most people bought the PSP as a portable media device. The software sales prove it. The PS4 has absolutely none of that. No new media funtionality as a major selling point. THAT is why the PSP Go failed. THAT is why the Vita stopped selling well after it's impressive launch. "More games" can't save it because "more games" isn't the problem.
The problem is that Sony stupidly made a hardcore centric device when hardcore gamers make up a small fraction of what has ever sold Sony consoles. Each console was met with amazing hype. The last three were financial failures. I honestly doubt the PS4 will continue to sell as well as is. Not with the XBO's policy shifts. If the XBO ever sells a Kinectless version for $399, the PS4 literally has no chance. Not when the audience that buys the Xbox is broader that the audience that buys the Playstation.
It's not that the PS2 "didn't have do rely on a handful of old franchises in order to sell." The PS2 didn't have the luxury of relying on a handful of old franchises in order to sell. It relied on it's dominance over the market to gain exclusive 3rd party games. That's a luxury the PS4 no longer has. Sony will never have an IP with sales like GTA PS2 again. It doesn't have Final Fantasy or Kingdom Hearts exclusivity. Games sell systems, and there are no 1st party IPs aside from Gran Turismo that hit over 10 mil. Multiplats are only important if you don't have them.
The only company that can survive without them is Nintendo, but that luck runs thin. PS4 can never and will never be able to live without them. That's not necessarily bad until you look at the Vita. Exclusives are franckly more important than 3rd party. PS3, even with Blu ray help, stuggled the entire generation because of cost and because it's IPs didn't invoke the demand that Microsoft's and especially Nintendo's does. And Microsoft dominated 3rd party for most of the generation.
What I see is the PS4 will start with record highs, but once January ends, sales will slow down drastically as Titanfall and Nintendo IPs hit, while the PS4 is only left with InFAmous, a game that no normal person will know or care anything about. They'll know about Titanfall, though. They'll see it on Doridos and buy it on their 360 because the XBO is too pricey at the moment. They'll know Mario Kart 8. They'll know Super Smash Bros. Thos games will drive momentum. Sony, as of now, has nothing. They could have have Gran Turismo, but now that's on the PS3 instead. And that's all they had.
The XBO will have a successful launch, as most consoles do, and will slump imediately because of the many cheaper options. However, after January, it has IPs with far more momentum power that the PS4. Especially the next Halo and less especially Titanfall. I do think that sales will pick up and I do think that a Kinectless XBO will be announced, but not this holiday. There's a huge posibility that a lot of the games launching this holiday will require the Kinect, even for mundane tasks, and that's why they haven't released one yet, but I'm sure that by next year it will come for $399.
I think that, if the advertizing is strong, the Wii U will pick up serious momentum starting with the Wind Waker bundle, then with a Wii Fit U basic bundle for $349-$369, then finally with a Super Mario 3D World bundle for $349 in December. I think they'd have benefited from a Watch_Dogs bundle/promotion as well, but since there have been no Wii U trailers/gameplay for the game, I doubt it.
If this year is successful, I see major publishers supporting the Wii U next year. I think the Division and The Crew are no brainers. I think that Destiny will come as well. I think the EA will return more towards the end of next year. I think that Kingdom Hearts III will definitely come, but I'm not sure about FFXV. I don't think we'll be getting The Witcher 3 and I don't think we'll be getting any Bethesda games still. I think that the Wii U, PC, PS4, and XBO versions of GTA V will be released in months. I don't think Rockstar cares about the install base. I also doubt we'll see any games from Ken Levine on the Wii U any time soon if at all.
That's what I predict. That's what I believe. Those are my reasons for believing.
-Spemanig
