UNITY - Nintendo & Wii U Finish The REVOLUTION

[richardhutnik]

And this is my reply to John's mail he sent on here. He happens to think, once the bottom falls out, all the third party companies will run back to Nintendo. What I hold is they will be out of business. Anyhow, here is my reply:

Thing that happens is, if the bottoms falls out, they go out of business. There will be no third party running to Nintendo, but will be ones out of business. And then you look for all the venture capital to leave also, and then there is a crash. You have Nintendo as a survivor of a shrinking market, not a dominant player.

And I would say you would be correct about the PC model running against Nintendo, and people who say Nintendo MUST go third-party to survive, also miss the point. HOWEVER, I think when things shift, it is easy to be off. I would say to look beyond the PC market also, which is also shrinking, to the smart devices out there. Android is growing at this point, and it is proving a nemesis for Nintendo also. Android has almost all the traits of the PC market, right down to the instability. Look for Android devices to flood the market, and then end up going into Asia, China and third-world at this point.

Thing is, none of this is running back to Nintendo. And reduction to Nintendo as a survivor is going to mean a much smaller market. And then Android and other end will end up catching up. You need to seriously see the downsides here, and be aware of them.

One BIG factor here is that videogame is now established as part of the culture and is going all over the place, with free to play as the normal model. Yes, I did see the Iwata talk you posted, and also have based my views in part to what he said there, because there is NO guarantee Nintendo isn't going to lose it. Parents are buying kids smart devices, and then the 99 cent appeal is sucking up interest. Look at what the big titles are, as far as mindshare goes. They come from portable devices, NOT Nintendo. Angry Birds is bigger than Mario at this point, as far as buzz and interest. Thing is that Nintendo is rehashing IP, and it is getting old.

http://www.ign.com/articles/2011/09/29/angry-birds-is-bigger-than-mario

This is as far as buzz goes.