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The chances of this generation shrinking or higher than it growing - with a smaller generation and less casuals.
So far, the only company that has something casuals might find interesting is the Wii U (tablet like controllers and Wii games line-up). If all MS does is Kinect 2, i don`t see it grabbing non-gamers, casuals and kids attention.
Some developers already expressed their desire for the new generation to not be as long as the old one.

If Wii U gets decent 3rd party support and PS4 and X720`s library is basically the same, i don`t see a a big reason to the number of multiple console owners be as big as this past gen.