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This is pretty much what I was thinking recently and especially after IGNs first article on this.

MS has had various obstacles that have impaired their readiness to launch. I don't think they'll repeat the RROD issue, but I do think they will be more like Wii U in having a very limited number of exclusive titles.

However, they will have one large difference, the fact that both of their competitors are already out and therefore 3rd parties will already have various cross-platform games hitting next-gen where Wii U was very limited / none for its first quarter.

I also don't see MS having the same overall issue with its OS and additional features considering its built on Win8 and likely utilizing many of the exact same systems as X360. Maybe a new feature will be lacking, but it will at least start with a robust system where Nintendo's was 100% new in the Wii U.