I disagree that cost of developing games is going to be one of the two big issues. Developers have been making graphically intensive games on the PC for a long time. The reason that early PS3 games were expensive, delayed, and graphically worse than their 360 counterparts is because the PS3 was different to program for due to the cell. The PS4 is powerful, but fairly standard.
1) Analysts Predictions - around the PS3 launch, Sony had 2 successful consoles under it's belt, and the PSP was assumed to be doing fine with just a slow launch. Nintendo was producing a sequel to a 21 million seller and MS was producing a sequel to a 24 million seller. Analysts all assumed that the PS3 would dominate, and that meant that 3rd parties were willing to support it.
Now, Sony has 2 successes and 3 'failures' under their belt (and please don't bite my head off about the term failure, I know that PSP and PS3 have done reasonably well for themselves, and I am sure PSV will do just as well), Nintendo is releasing the sequel to a 100 million selling console, and by PS3 launch time it will be having great hardware sales. MS is releasing the sequel to a ~80 million selling console.
Devs aren't going to rely on Sony until Sony can give them a reason to.
2) Price of hardware. We all know Sony is in deep, deep trouble financially. PS3 is not making them the same easy money that the PS2 was, and the rest of the company is struggling. The gaming division cannot use the "it's alright for us to lose money, we're helping establish blu ray over hd dvd." argument. Sony will not take a huge hit on hardware price this generation like they did last generation. The PS4 will cost a lot for consumers at launch.
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