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I'd say yes. Early 2014 at the latest. Remember, the decision to discontinue the system isn't 100% up to Nintendo. Retailers can decide whether they wish to carry the system or not. And given that after the holidays there are going to be 6 home consoles and 4 handhelds to stock on shelves, most stores are going to stop selling current gen systems to make room for the next gen ones. Some of the first to go are going to be the PSP and the DS, as their successors have been out the longest. Next year, I imagine the Wii will be the next one to go. The 360 and the PS3 should have 2-3 years left on US shelves.