I voted Microsoft to win but I can't see it having much difference between Sony and Microsoft. Like right now there isn't a lot to distinguish between the two consoles and they generally share close sales, Microsoft tip things in American while Sony pick up larger numbers in Europe and will inevitably get a 5m+ boost from Japan over Microsoft. In the long term Sony seem better equiped to pick up sales from the developing markets too like rest of Asia, Brazil etc too.
Just can't see PS4 and 720 really selling with much of a different split to the current PS3 / 360 sales, provided there is no crazy pricing disparity. Obviously games are a bit of a wildcard in this that we can't judge with yet - both have strong first parties that I think will excel - its the 'other' exclusives that may swing it. What is Sony get an exclusive release on next-gen consoles of the next Assassin's Creed? Maybe Microsoft could tie up timed exclusivity on Bethesdas next big game? They're the megatons E3 will give us I'm sure.
Nitendo will do okay too - I don't totally see where the Wii U 'fits' in things and I think it'll come third. But Nintendo has a huge core audience so it'll still sell great and have brilliant software - I think it's a question of if they can get the families on board like they managed with the Wii.
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