I agree with you. Success of current gen will be a big issue when entering next gen. There are also quite a few additional burdens when it comes to developing for Next XBox/PS4. Most probably, the architecture will be quite different which makes programming at the beginning slow and difficult. Given also the rising costs in development we might see only a handful real next gen games in the first 1-2 years. Depending on how the market reacts to these games the companies will decide on their future resources. It will really all come down on how quickly the market reacts to the new consoles. Some companies might also decide for an in between strategy. In a best case scenario for Nintendo, companies will develop for WiiU and port to XBox720/PS4.
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