No.
If the Wii was retired and removed from shelves right now, it would still remain the #1 selling console this gen worldwide.
Below is worldwide sales in millions (rounded) based on VGC data from http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2011/Global/
2012 - WiiU releases; 2013 neXtBox and PS4 release
2016 - All 3 from this gen will be retired by now.
2013 to 2016 are estimations based on current and guestimated YOY declines where above assumptions are true.
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 (curr + est for dec) | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| Wii | 17.3 | 11.6 (-33%) | 5.5 (-53%) | 3.3m (-40%) | 2.2m (-33%) | 1.5m (-32%) | 0 |
| PS3 | 13.9 | 14.1 (+1%) | 10.5 (-26%) | 6m | 4m | 2.8m | 1.5m |
| X360 | 13.3 | 13.8 (+4%) | 9.4 (-32%) | 5.6m | 3.4m | 2.2m | 1m |
As you can see, PS360 are only about one year behind the decline curve of Wii. Obvious difference is that Wii peaked much higher and earlier. But the gen is on decline and early next year as MSony begin confirming their next gen consoles, this continue the dramatic decline. (btw, currently PS360 are closer to 35 and 40% declines. I'm expecting these last 5 weeks to improve that % a little bit, but still have about a 30% drop overall and larger in 2013 due to next gen)
With that decline, we have the following yearly total sums of consoles sold:
| 2010 |
2011 |
2012 (curr + est for dec) |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
|
| Wii |
82.1 |
93.7 |
99.2 |
102.5 |
104.7 |
106.2 |
|
| PS3 |
46.4 |
60.5 |
71.0 |
77.0 |
81.0 |
83.8 |
85.3 |
| X360 |
50.0 |
63.8 |
73.2 |
78.8 |
82.2 |
84.4 |
85.4 |
Understanding the YOY decline, should prove without a doubt that Wii will remain the generational leader overall. It simply impossible to have any other outcome.
You have to realize the fact that PS360 will be down by about 1/3 this year. That there is no way MSony will NOT launch their successors next year given that WiiU is out and they have had such a decline YOY. Then due to the successors launching, you'll see a larger decline of up to 1/2. Followed by a relatively slower decline the years following that with a full retirement near their 10th years.
Even if I'm off by a logically significant difference of say 5m or 10m, there is still no way either of them will break 100m and thus no way to pass Wii.
