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MSFT will likely be using a paid subscription so it will not appear to actually be $500. Even the rumor states something a long this statement. It won't be $500 to people's eyes much like cell phones. You may have to make a down payment but it's not like you are stating above. Anyways nobody can predict next gen and how each console will sell. All three should do good though if those rumors are true. And you need to realize how popular kinect and xbox is before saying it wont sell in america. And this isnt arrogant compared to $599 without a subscription. Very different situation.