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While I won't comment on all those calculations you went through, I also think 4GB could very well be the number they aim for. My current gaming machine has 8GB RAM and even that seems overkill on most games I play (although I'm probably a bit spoiled with a solid state hard drive, so I can't really tell if my RAM affects loading times much).

I'm probably in the minority camp where I'm not too worried about the specs of the next-gen consoles, but I would like them to LOOK much cooler than they did in the current gen. I always hate how all the fake concept pics of upcoming consoles end up looking so much better than the real thing :P