This is only about PSV right? The PS3 has definitely not gone down that route.
About VITA, I think we should wait until at least E3, there are many announcements to be made, and many announcements that have already been made, including many AAA non-casual possibly system-selling games like Call of Duty, Bioshock and Assassins Creed, all of which are 3rd party. I see where you're coming from though when looking at that launch line-up, but I don't think it represents the big picture for games on VITA.
Will we see more casual games on it than what's previously been on SONY consoles? Probably. But I think we'll also see 3rd parties do well a long with the non-casual SONY IPs like Uncharted, Gran Turismo and new SONY IPs do very well.
Also, keep in mind Little Deviants was heavily bundled and Hot Shots Golf only does really good numbers in one region. The sales Hot shots golf achieved would be laughable compared to what an MGS or MH launch title could of done in Japan, and those aren't casual games, far from it.
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