VGC Mafia Round -28- FullMetal Alchemist

[A Bad Clown]

Baalzamon said:

theprof00 said:

Baalzamon said:

Ok, yea, by not lynching today, it would require absolute perfection for the mafia to win on night 3.  That is, we would need a mislynch on day 1, 2, and 3, and a town sk kill on night 1, 2, and 3, assuming the mafia kill somebody all 3 nights as well.

If we lynch today, however, there is a chance that we lose on day 3 already, as well as a higher probability that we lose night 3 than without lynching.  So my original numbers were off, but the reasoning stands that I don't think it is worth it to lynch somebody today.

So, your argument is that we can, at the worst, mislynch 3 times before the game is over no matter if it's a mislynch on day1 or day 2?

Yes, I know that isn't your point. It's my point. Day 1 is a good time to lynch. You may have a different opinion, but the fact is that we can get at most 3 mislynches no matter which day we lynch. The only difference is that if we mislynch today, we get information with at least one more townie to analyze it (lost townie from nightkill on night 1.

There are plenty of small differences, but I think that if we get at most 3 mislynches no matter what, it doesn't matter how many days we have.

I might be looking at it the wrong way, but if not lynching today increases our odds of an extra night/day in our game, would that not be more information that we can consume for a potential lynch on the final day, meaning we are less likely to fuck up the last lynch, and therefore more likely to win?

Or the first lynch as seen by what happened to you last game.,..