Conegamer's Official 2011 predict-a-thon. ENTRIES NOW OPEN!!!

[postofficebuddy]

Glad I decided to wait to predict. I thought 3DS might win this year but after doing some research it doesn't look like such a certainty anymore.

PS3 - 15.5 million

Wii - 15.25 million

360 - 13 million

3DS - 12 million

PSP - 11 million

DS - 10.75 mill

People are serriously underestimating the decline that the DS will see this year. It's already down almost 40% and that decline will accelerate even more once 3DS comes out and again when it passes the price cut in the summer. Admitedely the price cut didn't have a huge impact last year but it's still not going to be doing the YOY comparissons any favors. I'm assuming a $50 cut for all 3 home consoles. I don't see a price cut being enough to keep 360 flat YOY. I can't see it having even close to the same impact as the slim and Kinect last year. I assumed it might have a chance of being flat YOY earlier but that was under the assumption that it would build up a massive YOY lead prior to passing the slim launch in the summer. Like a 1 million YOY lead or more. The way things are trending now it probably won't even gain 400k by June. PS3 seems to be keeping its YOY declines to a relative minimum and since last years sales were simply consistently good with no particular high point other than the arguable move launch, and with its holiday in Japan pretty much being abyssmal, I think a $50 cut and a good holiday lineup (FFXIII-2, Ninokuni) would be enough to counter any declines and give PS3 its best year yet. PSP should be able to end the year up with price cuts. Here's my wild card predictions.

1. Catherine will release in North America and will have a larger opening on PS3 than Demon's Souls.

2. In terms of shipments PS2 will retain its title of best selling video game system of all time through the end of 2011.

3. Batman: Arkham City will have a better metacritic than Arkham Asylum.

4. Donkey Kong Country Returns will get a special edition bundle.

5. 3DS will have at least one non-bundled 3 million seller by the end of the year.

6. NGP will have at least 1 million seller by the end of the year.

7. The next Devil May Cry will have content exclusive to the PS3.

8. Bungie will announce their new IP.

9. Just Dance 3 will be announced.

10. A Monster Hunter game will be announced for the PS3.